PMI figures, China, Japan, Australia, Manufacturing PMI

The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to raise rates again at its March meeting before pausing it for the rest of the year, AMP said in a note.

“We believe the RBA is closer to pausing the rate hike cycle than the market expects,” AMP chief economist Diana Mussina said in a note.

“We expect only one rate hike from the Reserve Bank at the March board meeting and a pause for the rest of the year (with the risk of a rate cut later in 2023),” she said, citing the “disappointing” economic path. data seen in previous months,

Mousina pointed to negative job growth between November and December, a smaller-than-expected wage increase in the fourth quarter of last year, and how monthly consumer prices are showing signs of slowing in early 2023.

She added that a weaker employment reading in February would increase the risk of stalling at the March RBA meeting. Australia will release its unemployment rate for February on March 16, after seeing a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment in February.

The Australian dollar was down 0.31% against the US dollar on Wednesday, trading at 0.6573.

– Lim Hwi Ji

China Official Manufacturing PMI It rose to 52.6 in February, above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

This compared to a January reading of 50.1 and above expectations of 50.5, according to economists polled by Reuters.

The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 56.3 – also above January’s reading of 54.4, the highest level since June 2022.

– Jihe Lee

A private survey by au Jibun Bank showed Japanese factory activity slowed at the fastest pace in two and a half years in February.

The manufacturing PMI fell to 47.7, down from 48.9 in January. This marked the fourth consecutive month that factory activity in Japan remained in contraction territory.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction in growth.

On Tuesday, Japanese Industrial Production decreased 4.6% Compared to the previous month in January, the biggest decline the economy has seen in eight months.

– Lim Hwi Ji

Australia’s economy grew 2.7% for the whole of 2022, in line with economists’ forecasts, but below the 2021 figure of 5.9%.

On a quarterly basis, GDP grew by 0.5%, according to the The country’s statistical office data. Australia has now posted five consecutive quarterly GDP rises, but growth has slowed in the past two quarters.

The Australian dollar strengthened 0.36% against the US dollar, while the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.22%.

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– Xavier Ong

Preliminary data showed that South Korea’s trade deficit narrowed to $5.3 billion in February, after recording a deficit of $12.65 billion in January.

The latest reading is a smaller deficit than expectations for a deficit of $6.06 billion, according to economists polled by Reuters.

Exports fell 7.5%, falling short of expectations for a 8.7% decline – while imports grew 3.6%.

– Jihe Lee

March is often a positive month for the stock market, but this year could bring more of the same turmoil that rattled investors in February.

Stocks are set to exit February with huge losses, with the S&P 500 down 2.3% for the month through Monday. The index is still up 3.7% for the year-to-date.

“February is the second-worst month of the year, posting an average decline of 0.21%, and it is the second-worst month after September,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment analyst at CFRA. However, March averaged a gain of 1.1%, up 64% of the time. March is the fifth best month for the S&P 500, according to CFRA data going back to 1945.

For more, read the full story on CNBC Pro.

– Patti Dome, Tanaya Machell

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury reached a high of 3.983% on Tuesday, the highest level since November 10, when the bond yield reached 4.117%. The last rise was about 3 basis points at 3.955.

Treasury yields added to sharp gains in February as traders continued to weigh the prospects of tightening monetary policy for longer than expected.

– Gina Francola, Tanaya Machell

Interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve have weighed on equity markets, according to UBS Financial Services.

“We judge the economy to be late in the cycle, with the Fed continuing to raise interest rates and growth likely to slow. Tighter policy creates downside risks for markets,” UBS chief US economist Brian Rose wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

The company expects the S&P 500 to end the year near current levels, with better upside potential in cyclical markets outside the US, specifically in emerging markets and Germany.

“We prefer value over growth,” Rose writes.

According to Rose, financial conditions did not tighten in line with the Fed’s interest rate hike. Fed raise interest rates by 25 basis points on February 1, and suggested there would be further rate hikes in the coming months.

– Piya Singh