“Polling Firms Proved Unreliable”

Of course. The coastal areas, the large cities of the West derived from the CHP, are certainly richer than the Black Sea or central Anatolia. Traditionally, the coasts – Aegean and Mediterranean – are most favorable for CHP. It is an economically active electorate (tourism, small SME services) and certainly believes in the election of Klişateroğlu for economic recovery.

Central Anatolia, on the other hand, is more rural, more traditional, and more accommodating. Thanks to the patronage system implemented by Erdogan in recent years, millions of families in these regions live on government subsidies. If Erdogan loses, they fear they will no longer receive these aids.

Another thing is the importance of religion, Sunni Islam, Erdoğan emphasizes, by polarizing society against Kurds, Alevis, anyone who doesn’t conform to the model. He has a powerful tool at his disposal, the Diyanet, with its thousands of imams and officials, which has developed a dense network across Turkey. Election campaign in villages does not need AKP representation, mosque is enough.