CHICAGO – Market research data firm Numerator has introduced a grocery vulnerability index, which will guide CBG brands and retailers, as restaurants add capacity and the Govt-19 vaccine becomes widely available.
Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) measures the index of whether a change in costs is related to a change in the cost of a particular type of grocery.
“As COVID controls begin to loosen and vaccines become more widely used, retailers and brands need to understand what changes are taking place for their business,” said Eric Belcher, CEO of Numerator. “Numerator data helps retailers and brands to anticipate and predict the impact of re-emerging behaviors using advanced analytics.”
Types with higher index scores (> 125) may be negatively affected when consumers return to pre-COVID eating behaviors (method below). Key findings include:
Most vulnerable categories: Meat, herbs and spices
- As QSR / restaurants reopen and consumers switch to their home-cooked meals, meat is 50% higher than the average grocery item, leading to a drop in grocery sales.
- Sales of herbs and spices are down 46%, with more consumers eating out and less preparing home-cooked meals.
Moderate exposure: packaged bakery, milk
- Packaged bakery is 13% more likely to have a negative reaction because increased movement among consumers will lead to more baked goods purchased during travel from QSRs.
- 8% more to see milk decrease. When many dairy products are stapled in the refrigerator, both culinary consumption and consumption will decrease.
Wait and see: frozen foods, baking and cooking
- Frozen foods are currently classified as a “wait and see” category, which can currently be seen as a 2% decrease, but some categories of frozen foods are more vulnerable to an increase in restaurant costs than others.
- Baking and cooking currently stands at 2%, but the risk can be reduced if baking hobbies taken during infections become sustainable behaviors.
Not vulnerable: standard food on the shelf, breakfast and so on
- Shelf stable food is very low (-69%) to see a decline in sales as restaurants reopen.
- Other groceries considered to be unaffected by increased restaurant costs are breakfast (-56%), canned foods (-37%) and production (-33%).