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Wednesday 30 March 2022
afternoon update
The Space Weather Prediction Center, a division of NOAA, released its geomagnetic storm watch on March 31, 2022. There were two solar flares from the sun on the side facing Earth. Corona mass ejection mass ejection (CME) is going our way and is measured as G3, or strong!
Here is a look at what happened and expectations.
The sun’s conspiracy
The expectation is a large display of northern light, but also the possibility of affecting and disrupting satellite communications. This can affect anything from GPS, TV/Radio subscriptions, and telephone service. In extreme cases, this can affect the power grid and the Internet. The most extreme case was in March 1989 when the electricity grid in Quebec, Canada, was flooded Electromagnetic activity.
The storm was on March 28, and the Space Weather Prediction Center tracked it down
The NOAA SWPC modeled the two coronal mass ejections released during M-class activity. The ENLIL model predicts a combined effect (second CME faster than the first) after midnight UTC on March 31. G2 moderately stormy conditions are possible. pic.twitter.com/dnon5fqQAS
– SpaceWeatherLive (_SpaceWeather_) March 29, 2022
Dr. Young draws 6 pharynx and more than 10 keflares. Also 2 CME aura!
Now that’s some work! The AR2975 produced 6 Mflares, 10+ Cflares and two CME halos our way. Two exciting days and soon maybe here on Earth when the CMEs get here. Together they will be better. 😀 Get your twilight eyes scenes ready! 🌞🚀 pic.twitter.com/4QhXwkvMC4
– Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) March 29, 2022
Watch the geomagnetic storm
Please note that this states March 31st. Tonight in UTC
Earth is protected by the magnetosphere. These storms give rise to the aurora borealis in the northern hemisphere, also known as the aurora borealis. The stronger the storm, the further south the visible light will reach.
This has a good chance of getting into parts of New York and Pennsylvania.
To make it in Maryland, we need:
- Planetary Index (Kp) of 7/8
- Peak arrival at night
- K planetary index.
- a clear sky
Kp . forecast
Watch Aurora
Cloud forecast 12 am – midnight
Locally this would be ‘inappropriate’
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see also
ALL FITF GEAR
FITF THUNDERSNOW
Winter forecast series:
Last Winter Summary: My Old Predictions and My Storm Prediction Score
winter weather page – Lots of resources
Solar cycle Increasing sunspots suggests more snow
Comparing 4 Different Farmers’ Almanacs: A Cooler Winter Look From NOAA
NOAA Winter Outlook – but read the fine print
Signs of early winter start in November
Winter Forecast Series: La Nina Double Dip
Orientals shouldn’t give a hint of La Nina’s winter style
Winter Folklore Checklist
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