Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, ten years of absolute power and real politics

Over ten years Since Islamist Mohamed Morsi – the first Egyptian head of state elected by universal suffrage – Abdel Fattah al-Sisi still rules Egypt with an iron fist.

His victory in the December 10-12 presidential election is not in doubt, neither his opponents nor his supporters, having won the previous two elections, in 2014 and 2018, with more than 96% of the vote. votes. Voice…

A new victory will renew the former marshal until 2030. The Egyptian president could amend the constitution in 2019 to put himself before the electorate for a third term, in this case extending the presidency’s mandate from four to six years.

Born in Cairo in November 1954, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi grew up in a conservative environment in a family of fourteen children. This son of a businessman chose very early to pursue a military career that guaranteed social advancement in a military-controlled country. Long unknown to the general public, he rose to fame in 2012 when he became Egypt’s army chief and defense minister.

The surprise promotion was decided by Mohamed Morsi, the first Egyptian head of state elected by universal suffrage in June 2012, following the fall of Hosni Mubarak a year earlier. At the time, the press described Abdel Fattah al-Sisi as a devout Muslim and compatible with the Muslim Brotherhood, the movement from which President Morsi came, particularly because of his family ties to Abbas al-Sisi, Hassan al-Sisi. Banna was the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood.

But if this potential proximity to a movement so closely monitored by the Mubarak regime had fueled the slightest suspicion, his lightning rise within the military would not have materialized.

Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, who was partially trained in the United Kingdom and the United States and was commander of the Northern Military Zone before taking charge of military intelligence, quickly established himself as the country’s strongest man. In early July 2013, the day after massive demonstrations that united millions of Egyptians across the country demanding the ouster of Mohamed Morsi, he issued an ultimatum to the president and political leaders. He calls on them to “meet the demands of the people” without openly asking for Mohamed Morsi’s resignation.

The armed forces, already responsible for the post-Mubarak transition, are emerging from the shadows to impose their road map and close the 2011 revolutionary brackets and the Morsi chapter.

The Islamist president was promptly sacked, then arrested and jailed – he died in 2019 after falling ill in court – while Muslim Brotherhood protests were put down in a bloodbath that Human Rights Watch described at the time as a “potential crime against humanity”.

Humble and efficient to his admirers, pessimistic and suspicious of his detractors, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi can now ditch the military uniform and medals for the presidential suit and tie he practically wears.

For Egyptians hostile to the political Islam embodied by the Brotherhood, he saved the country from the clutches of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Total oppression

Facade pluralism, confused public debate, harassed opponents, justice under orders, silenced independent press… Liberal and secular opposition parties, as well as local and international NGOs, are accused of wanting to restore the old order after the referendum in 2014. According to them, since he assumed office, “repression has reached unprecedented levels”.

Most recently, in a report published on October 2, six international and Egyptian human rights organizations condemned the “massive and systematic use of torture by the authorities” in Egypt – which, in their opinion, “constitutes a crime against humanity under international law.

Parallel to the repressive stranglehold on the political level, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi launched a series of baronial works extolling the greatness of Egypt to extol the nationalist strands of his compatriots..

This is what he ordered to modernize the country’s road and electricity infrastructure and build a new administrative capital in Egypt, called “Sissi City”, less than 50 kilometers from Cairo. A project should be completed in 2020, but it is still in the first phase.

In August 2015, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi grandly inaugurated the expansion of the Suez Canal, another flagship project set to symbolize the “new Egypt”. French President Francois Hollande will attend the ceremony as a special guest. The project, which cost Egypt about 7.3 billion euros, was completed within a year, this time on schedule.

This new Suez Canal brought about 8.6 billion euros in state record revenue in the fiscal year 2022-2023, promising Egyptians prosperity and security.

Promises that will be hard to keep in a country undermined by an unprecedented economic crisis and at risk of defaulting on its foreign debt.

The war in Ukraine has left the tourism sector, a pillar of the country’s economy, at half-mast. After being hit by post-Mubarak political instability and the pandemic, it has seen a sharp drop in the number of Russian and Ukrainian tourists, who represent 35 to 40% of customers each year, according to local data. Another consequence of the conflict weighing on its economy: an increase in the price of wheat, of which Egypt is the world’s leading importer, mainly from Russia and Ukraine.

Ten years after coming to power, Egypt and its 105 million people are mired in poverty under the auspices of Saudi Arabia.

Still an indispensable ally to Westerners

The fact is that in the international arena, the former head of military intelligence is seen as a guarantor of stability and regional security. Blind to his human rights abuses, Westerners see him as an essential ally in the troubled Middle East, with genuine political obligations.

Especially today when the cards are reshuffled by the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, after the October 7 terrorist attacks. Thus, Hamas hostages released during the week of the cease-fire in Gaza were directed towards Egypt. Humanitarian aid goes through the Egyptian-controlled Rafah crossing and into the Palestinian coastal area.

Already in 2014, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, the pragmatist, backed down when Westerners protested against his plot to seize power. The US and Europeans congratulated him only two days after he announced his successful election, not without stressing at the time the need to quickly respect human rights.

In return, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, who was supported upon his rise to power by the Gulf monarchies led by Saudi Arabia, is increasingly close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. In November 2014, a month after US economic and military aid to Cairo was frozen – which the Obama administration justified by “lack of progress in terms of human rights in Egypt” – the Kremlin announced the provision of anti-aircraft defense systems. Egypt is also considering supplying planes and helicopters to the military.

A brilliant strategist, the former marshal knows that the West can’t stay away from the populous Arab nation for long as a strategic mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and a key ally in the fight against terrorism.

In fact, the jihadist threat and the geostrategic interests of the great powers have finally changed all positions, especially the positions of the United States, with the arrival of Donald Trump in office in 2016. “I want everyone to know that we are clearly behind President Sisi, who has done a wonderful job in a very difficult environment,” declared American billionaire Abdel Fattah al-Sisi during his first visit to Washington.

In October 2017, Emmanuel Macron announced during an official visit to France that he did not want to “give lessons” to the Egyptian president on human rights.

“President Sissi has a challenge, the stability of his country, the fight against terrorist movements, the fight against violent religious fundamentalism,” the French president explained during his first meeting with his Egyptian prime minister since his election. “This is the environment in which he has to govern, and we cannot ignore it.”

Between 2010 and 2019, Egypt imported 7.7 billion euros worth of French arms, according to parliament. In 2015, it became the first foreign country to buy Rafales from France, with an order for 24 fighter jets.

Sinai, a stone of protection in shoes of Sissy

Like his predecessors from the military, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is keen to acquire modern weapons and secure his borders. Especially in its immediate neighborhood – Libya, Sudan, Israel and the Gaza Strip – all affected by ongoing conflict or chaotic internal situations.

In terms of internal security, Egypt faces a jihadist insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula in the country’s northeast. According to the opposition, it is a constant threat used by those in power to limit public freedom.

In 2018, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi launched a broad “counter-terrorism” operation in the area, where radical cells operate, some pledging allegiance to the Islamic State group. In vain, Sinai remains a security headache for Cairo. And another broken promise for Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.