AP Sources: EPA vehicle rule to drive massive increase in EV sales

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration will propose tough new auto pollution limits this week that require at least 54% of new cars sold in the United States to be electric by 2030 and up to two out of three by 2032, according to for industry. Environmental officials are briefed on the plan.

The proposed regulation, to be released by the Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday, would set greenhouse gas emissions limits for the years 2027 to 2032 for passenger car models that would be stricter than targets agreed to by the auto industry in 2021.

Officials said the EPA will present a range of options that the agency can select after a public comment period. They asked not to be identified because the proposal has not been made public. The proposed regulation is not expected to become final until next year.

Environmental groups applaud the ambitious numbers, which were first reported over the weekend by The New York Times. But the plan is likely to draw strong opposition from the auto industry, which pledged in August 2021 to make electric vehicles half of new car sales in the United States by 2030 as it moves toward a historic shift away from internal combustion engines.

Even the lower end of the EPA’s 2030 range is 4 percentage points higher than the 2021 goal, which came after strong pressure from President Joe Biden. that The executive order Biden signed set a target of half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 be zero-emission vehicles, including battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles or fuel cell electric vehicles.

Biden also wants automakers to increase gas mileage and reduce tailpipe pollution between now and the 2026 model year. That would mark an important step toward fulfilling his pledge to halve America’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. while prompting an almost unimaginable shift from gasoline-powered engines to battery-powered vehicles.

With electric vehicles accounting for just 7.2% of US auto sales in the first quarter of this year, the industry has a long way to go to even get close to the administration’s goals. However, the percentage of electric vehicle sales is increasing. Last year, the percentage of new car sales was 5.8%.

The EPA declined to provide details ahead of Wednesday’s announcement, but said in a statement that, under Biden’s direction, it is “developing new standards that will…accelerate the transition to a zero-emission transportation future, protecting people and the planet.”

The EPA’s pollution limits don’t actually require a set number of electric cars to be sold each year, but rather limit greenhouse gas emissions. That amounts to roughly the same thing, according to the agency’s calculations of how many electric vehicles would likely be required to comply with the stricter pollution limits.

The auto industry will likely need to sell more EVs to meet the requirements. Gasoline vehicles have already increased mileage with more efficient engines and transmissions, reduced weight and other measures. Many in the industry say they’d rather spend investment dollars developing new electric vehicles that are likely to dominate the industry in the coming years.

Proposing a curb on the optimistic idea of ​​dramatic emissions improvements simply by setting rules, however, said the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade association that includes Ford, General Motors and other automakers, “regulatory mandates alone will not address the conditions that will determine the ultimate success of the EV transition.” .

The group said the EPA’s proposal “requires a massive 100-year change in America’s industrial base and the way Americans drive.”

Supportive policies such as tax credits for electric vehicle purchases and funding for a nationwide network of charging stations are needed, the coalition said in a statement before the EPA rule was announced. The statement said electric vehicles had to become more affordable, domestic supply chains for vital minerals and spare parts had to be established, and utility generation capacity had to be addressed.

Transportation is the single largest source of carbon emissions in the United States, but it is closely followed by electricity generation.

Environmental groups say there is a need for stricter standards for pollution in exhaust pipes, and provisions of the Mass Inflation Reduction Act passed last year will help reach the stricter requirements. “Exhaust emissions pollute the air we breathe and make the weather worse,” Fred Krupp, chair of the Environmental Defense Fund, said in a statement.

The Reducing Inflation Act, a climate and health care law that passed with only Democratic votes, has tax credits for the manufacture of electric vehicles and for purchases of new and used electric vehicles.

Currently, many new electric vehicles made in North America qualify for a $7,500 tax credit, while used EVs can get up to $4,000.

However, there are price and buyer income limits that make some vehicles ineligible. And starting April 18, the new requirements will be made by the Treasury Department Leads to fewer new electric cars qualifying for the full $7,500 federal tax credit.

The rules require that certain percentages of battery parts and metal come from North America or countries with which the United States has free trade agreements. Industry analysts say the requirements, announced March 31, could halve the $7,500 credit on many vehicles. Smaller credit may not be enough to attract new buyers for electric cars, which now cost an average of $58,600, according to Kelley Blue Book.

Pricing is down from $63,500 a year ago as more lower-priced EV models hit the market. However, electric cars are more expensive than the average car sold in the United States, which costs just under $46,000.

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Kreischer reported from Detroit.