“Beijing’s threats should be taken seriously,” warns a China expert

Beijing presents these maneuvers as an exercise “Total Encirclement”. On Monday, April 10, China ended operations around Taiwan in response to a meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy near Los Angeles. , March 29.

At the end of this third and last day of demonstration, the Chinese military command confirms “Extensively tested its combat capability” Collaboration “Actually”. Authorities in Taiwan, home to a population of 23 million, said on Monday they had spotted 12 warships and 91 Chinese aircraft around the island. Earlier in the day, these military aircraft, supported by one of China’s two aircraft carriers, carried out simulated targeted bombing against the island.

“We are not into trifles”ensures Antoine Bondaz is a research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research. A China expert puts Franceinfo in perspective on the move, dubbed the “joint sword” (“United Sword”) by Beijing.

China has already engaged in an unprecedented level of maneuvering around Taiwan during Nancy Pelosi’s visit in August 2022. How do you rate this new functionality?

Antoine Pontas : Duration is less important, used assets [c’est-à-dire les navires ou encore les bateaux] Fewer in number. In terms of volume and concentration, we are lower than we were in August 2022. However, one small difference can be highlighted: on Monday, 54 Chinese aircraft crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait. This is unprecedented. Never has there been so much in one day.

So should it be considered important?

Of course. It remains intense because it’s always the same kind of exercise: a simulated island siege. We are not trivial, this is not simply a demonstration of Chinese capabilities. We are talking about demonstrating China’s operational capabilities in a specific scenario: conducting a blockade. It’s important to show that you have the skills, but it’s even more important to show that you know how to use them.

What message does China want to send?

Along with the military effort, an information effort aimed at terrorizing the Taiwanese people, basically. But she didn’t care, she was used to it. The goal is to impress Taiwan’s partners, sending the message that there is no point in helping Taiwan. This is especially true not only of America but also of Japan.

You still have to realize the situation: you have the Chinese state media – we are not talking about a person on his blog or social networks – this is broadcast. Computer generated images simulating exercises around the island of Taiwan. Before the war in Ukraine, it would have caused a scandal if Russia had simulated an attack on Ukraine in a short video. We say there “It’s a simulation, it doesn’t mean anything”. Whereas: If they are state media, then it is official news.

And what’s the news for the Chinese?

Needless to say, China is powerful. It glorifies Chinese nationalism. What a crazy thing to do while waging war. Generally, to show off one’s skills, one displays one’s ships etc. There, conducting a strike against another country. We don’t have to deal with the European side.

Emmanuel Macron believes he does not want to be a “follower” of the US and China. “The Accumulation of Stresses” can drive “accident”. Is this risk high?

Obviously there is a risk of an incident that should not be underestimated. Threats should be taken seriously, China threatens Taiwan every day. It should also be remembered that China wants to change the status of Taiwan. [gouverné de fait par un pouvoir qui lui est propre, mais considéré par la Chine comme une province à réintégrer].

No debate: “Should we follow the Americans? Make war on China?” Above all the question is how do we contribute to the maintenance of the status quo without getting used to what is happening. We should not be complacent that the situation is gradually changing to China’s advantage.