ISW Russia Offensive Campaign Assessment, 8 July 2023

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• Five hundred days ago, Russia launched an unprovoked war of invasion against Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counterattack operations on at least three sectors of the front on 8 July. U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl noted on July 7 that the current Ukrainian operations across the front are the “beginning in the middle” of the broader counteroffensive and therefore it is too early to judge how the counteroffensive will proceed.
• The United States announced a new military aid package to Ukraine that includes cluster munitions on July 7.
• Russian forces carried out another series of 131/136 missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian industrial facilities and infrastructure during the night of 7-8 July..
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that Ukraine “deserves NATO membership” ahead of the July 11-12 NATO summit at a July 7 press conference in Istanbul with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky returned to Ukraine from Turkey accompanied by five Ukrainian commanders involved in the defense of the Azovstal Metallurgical Combin in Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast whom Ukraine, Russia and Turkey had previously agreed to remain in Turkey until the end of the war.
• Ukrainian intelligence has indicated that Russian authorities are exploiting fear of a provocation at the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to expel Ukrainian employees and increase the Russian presence at the ZNPP ahead of the upcoming NATO summit.
• Wagner Commander stated that the Wagner Group will go to Belarus after completing rest and recuperation until August 2023. The status of the deal between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prigozhin is unclear, and the deal may be in flux.
• The Kremlin may be trying to secure control over Wagner’s leadership and staff in Africa and the Middle East.
• A prominent Russian blogger has speculated that the Russian military leadership may be in the process of making the decision to replace Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, suggesting that the fallout from the Wagner Group mutiny on June 24 may still have repercussions at the highest levels of the military leadership.
• Former Russian officer and militant nationalist Igor Girkin has reportedly been banned from speaking about the Wagner Group’s insurrection by Russian authorities.
• Russian forces have launched ground offensives along the borders of Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblast and south of Kremina, and Ukraine will likely continue to launch strikes on Russian concentration areas deep in the rear of occupied Luhansk Oblast.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces launched ground offensives around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces launched limited ground offensives along the Avdiivka Donetsk city line.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground offensives along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts on 8 July.
• Ukrainian forces continued counter-offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly observed combat training of Russian contract soldiers at the Southern Military District (SMD) training grounds on July 8, presumably in an effort to portray Russia’s formalization efforts in a positive light and stimulate personnel recruitment.
• The Ukrainian government indicated that the Russian occupation authorities are struggling to compensate workers in vital industries, which has led to a shortage of personnel that could hinder the Russian war effort.

Authors: Karolina Heard, Katerina Stepanenko, Grace Mapes, Nicole Wolkoff, George Barros, Anjelica Evans, and Frederic W. Kagan.

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