Modi in the US: Why Washington is Rolling Out the Red Carpet for the Indian Prime Minister

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States has taken on great significance amid global economic and geopolitical headwinds.

The White House is doing its best to welcome Mr. Modi – it is a state visit, the highest level of diplomatic protocol the US agrees on with visiting leaders. Mr. Modi will be formally received at the White House on Thursday before holding face-to-face talks with President Joe Biden.

All this for a leader who was once denied a visa to travel to the US over human rights concerns — and now the US sees Mr Modi as a valued partner.

Behind the carefully choreographed ceremonies lie discussions that have the potential not only to inject new energy into Indo-US relations but also to have an impact on the world order.

The Indo-Pacific is where the United States likely needs India’s influence more than anywhere else right now. The United States has long viewed India as a counterweight to China’s growing influence in the region, but Delhi has never been quite comfortable owning the label.

It may still be reluctant to do so, but China remains one of the main catalysts driving Indo-US relations.

But India did not hesitate to take decisions that angered China. It conducted military exercises with US forces last year in the state of Uttarakhand, which shares the Himalayan border with China. Delhi also continued to actively participate in the Quartet – which also includes the US, Australia and Japan – despite angry reactions from Beijing.

Indian diplomacy has become more assertive about saying this is the country’s moment on the world stage. And with good reason – India is one of the few economic bright spots in the world right now, and geopolitics is in its favor as well – most countries want an industrial alternative to China, and India also has a huge market with a thriving middle class. This makes it a good choice for global countries and companies with China plus one policy.

What matters to the United States is what India does, not what it says publicly about China, says Tanvi Madan, director of the India Project at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC.

“Ultimately, whether or not India has publicly embraced the label, it is very clear that Indian governments have seen US relations as beneficial as they have dealt with China,” she said.

The two countries are now beginning to “see eye to eye on the broader Indo-Pacific theater,” added Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington.

“We are beginning to see the United States realize the importance of the western components of the Indian Ocean region. For many years, India’s main interest, with good reason, has been the Indian Ocean region. Whereas for the United States, it was the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. They will look at maritime security for the region now.”

The joint statement may not mention China directly but it will be high on the agenda as the two leaders discuss ways to boost their presence in the Indo-Pacific.

But while they agreed on China, the two countries had two different approaches to the Ukraine war.

India depends on Moscow for nearly 50% of its defense needs, but that is not the only reason. India has always been proud of its policy of non-alignment – or strategic independence, as it has been called in recent years. It does not want to be confined to a certain center of power in the world system, which infuriated Washington’s diplomats in the first months of the invasion.

India has also taken a step forward by publicly calling for an end to the war.

Madan added that the various reactions to the invasion were not a deal-breaker in Indo-US relations.

“When there is a strategic convergence, the two countries are motivated to manage their differences. They may not be eliminated, but to manage their differences. And I think that happened with their divergent positions on Russia,” she said.

Meanwhile, other key areas of discussion include technology, defense and global supply chain management.

The two countries signed up to what they call the Critical and Emerging Technology Initiative. The agreement will allow US and Indian companies and universities in various sectors, including information technology, aerospace, defense, artificial intelligence, education and healthcare, to work together.

Leaders may also announce more cooperation in technology, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing where China is the largest player.

Defense is another area that has emerged as a major meeting point.

Data analyzed between 2017 and 2022 indicates that India is the largest importer of arms in the world and Russia still accounts for a large part of it at 45%. But the headline here is that Moscow’s share was 65% as of 2016 – and this is where the US sees an opportunity.

Washington’s share has grown but is still only 11%, behind France’s 29%. So some expensive defense deals are inevitable — they are likely to announce India’s purchase of battle-tested MQ-9A “Reaper” drones, and an agreement between General Electric and Indian state firms to manufacture fighter jet engines in India.

Defense cooperation between the two countries has “come a long way,” Kugelman says.

“If you look at the recent record, one could argue that the treatment the United States gives India is no different than what it gives many of its allies,” he said.

While defense and technology will likely see some big announcements, the same cannot be expected in commerce.

The US is now India’s largest trading partner at $130 billion, but analysts say there is still huge untapped potential. There are significant differences between the two countries over tariffs and export controls India has signed a free trade agreement with Australia and Dubai and is discussing similar deals with other countries including Canada, the United Kingdom and the European Union, no such deal is on the cards this visit but the leaders may discuss or at Less pave the way for resolving future trade-related issues.

Mr. Kugelman said the differences were not ignored but set aside in the interests of mutually beneficial areas of cooperation.

But he added that trade between Indian and US companies has boomed in recent years despite differences between governments.

This may not be the highest priority, but trade will certainly come to light when the two leaders discuss global supply chain issues due to the pandemic and China’s monopoly.

“Trade was a sore subject, but I think the two sides approach trade policy differently today. But you can’t look at global supply chain issues without ultimately discussing trade,” Madan said.

The timing of the visit is also interesting as both countries will hold elections next year and both leaders will be looking at titles they can sell to their domestic audiences.

So some big headline-making deals are inevitable. But then, relations between the US and India have always been complex — with decades of mistrust followed by rebuilding of trust and then the occasional escalation of tensions.

But Biden appears determined to make India-US relations shine even though some in his country have questioned India’s human rights record under Modi.

On the eve of the visit, 75 Democratic members of Congress urged President Biden to raise human rights issues. They said they were concerned about increasing religious intolerance and restrictions on the press, shrinking political space and targeting of civil society groups in India. Human rights groups are planning protests during Mr Modi’s trip.

The recent statement by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke volumes about the current state of the relationship: “We know that India and the United States are two large, complex countries. We certainly have work to do to enhance transparency, enhance market access, and strengthen our democracies to unlock the full potential of our people. But the path This partnership is clear and full of promise.”

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