New Russian bombings in Kiev and fierce fighting in Mariupol are pending the resumption of talks.

There is a good explanation from the Agence France-Presse (AFP) about the so-called “second economic shock” caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the so-called “fertilizer”.

What is compost?

Fertilizers contain nutrients that help plants grow and promote their growth. They may be of organic origin (nettle manure, broth, poultry residue, etc.) or of mineral origin: minerals extracted from the soil, such as nitrogen (N) in the air or phosphorus (P) and potash (K).

Most European farmers use “NPK” mineral fertilizers, especially nitrogen fertilizers. The International Fertilizer Association (IFA), which integrates the global fertilizer industry, estimates that 85% of the world’s soil is nitrogen-free. “The Machine of Plant Growth”.

Nitrogen fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is obtained by combining nitrogen from air and hydrogen from natural gas. Nearly 80% of the cost of producing ammonia is associated with gas use. There are several types of these fertilizers: in liquid form (nitrogen solution) or in particles (ammonium nitrate and urea).

“Russia was the first exporter of nitrogen fertilizers by 2021 and the second supplier of potassium and phosphorus fertilizers.”The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) recalls.

“Forty percent of Europe’s gas supplies currently come from Russia.”Providing “25% of European supply” In nitrogen, potash and phosphate, warned1^Er March Sweeney Torre Holzer is the boss of Norwegian Yara, the world’s leading manufacturer of mineral nitrogen fertilizers.

The EU uses it every year “More than 11 million tons of synthetic nitrogen”According to a recent report by Green MEPs. It therefore depends on Russia for both its gas and direct imports of fertilizers; Brazil is a leading importer of nitrogen fertilizers in Russia.

Prices continue to rise

The price of mineral fertilizers continues to rise due to the rise in the price of natural gas. “The price of urea, the main nitrogen fertilizer, has more than tripled in the last twelve months.”According to FAO.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has pushed up the price of gas again and the nitrogen solution, which cost 600 euros per tonne by the end of October in the European market, has now reached 800 euros. “An Achievement”Acridel’s adviser Isire Perot insists.

Under these conditions, someone announced a temporary reduction in production in France and Italy, and its president ruled. “Important” That the international community “Works to reduce dependence on Russia”.

The potential risk of shortage is further altered by fears of supply efficiency in view of the astronomical costs of fertilizers: “In Western Europe, farmers are usually closed for spring sowing, but the question arises for the 2023 campaign.”Plantureux & allies broker Edward de Saint-Denis warns.

Today, and “Despite the high cost of grain, it is not profitable to buy fertilizer at 800 euros per tonne.”Adds Isaure Perrot.

Europe should turn to other sources: “In Algeria, the United States has gas – but at what price? – and in Iran or Kazakhstan – but do we want to buy from these countries?”Asks Ms.^Me Perot.

As for potash, about 40% of it is imported from Russia and Belarus, Europe may return to Canada, which is already its main supplier, but at a higher price, or to Israel and Jordan, grain brokers believe.

The EU may increase its phosphate inputs, with China, Morocco and the United States being the leading producers, but they point out that it does not replace nitrogen, which has basically higher European yields.

If the crisis continues, such as replacing legumes that consume less nitrogen than wheat and corn, such as sunflower or soybeans, alternatives to Isaure Perrot will be drilled.

Someone, for his part, wants to produce 30% of its ammonitrate from hydrolysis of water from 2023 – not from gas. One “Green hydrogen” Still very expensive, but it will make it possible to free itself from both fossil fuels and Russian gas dependence.