Trump shakes Europe. Now Harris will try to calm nervous allies: NPR

Vice President Harris, seen here in December 2023, will deliver a keynote address Friday at the Munich Security Conference.

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Vice President Harris, seen here in December 2023, will deliver a keynote address Friday at the Munich Security Conference.

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Vice President Harris faces a daunting task this week: trying to convince European leaders that America is an ally they can rely on through thick and thin, despite some recent evidence to the contrary.

Last week, the Republican presidential front-runner said he would give what appeared to be a green light for Russia to attack NATO allies that do not boost military spending. Meanwhile, Republican leaders in the House of Representatives have canceled billions of dollars in aid that Ukraine needs to continue its fight against Moscow's invasion.

Since taking office, President Biden has told his European counterparts that “America is back” as he worked to strengthen ties tested by his isolationist predecessor. Biden had promised US support for Ukraine “as long as it takes.”

Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said it fell to Harris — Biden's top envoy at this year's Munich security conference — to provide assurances.

“The key to our ability to be global leaders is not just our military power, not just our diplomatic power, but our credibility and our word,” Panetta said in an interview with NPR.

“And if the United States is unable to keep its word to provide assistance to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel… because of the various conflicts here in Washington, that raises questions,” Panetta said.

Vice President Harris arrives for a meeting on the sidelines of last year's Munich Security Conference with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on February 18, 2023.

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Vice President Harris arrives for a meeting on the sidelines of last year's Munich Security Conference with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on February 18, 2023.

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After Trump's “America First” slogan, Biden pushed for “America's return.”

Against this backdrop of uncertainty, Harris will take the stage in Munich on Friday to deliver what is billed as a major foreign policy speech in which she will defend Biden's record.

Biden faced the same crowd in Munich when he first took office — that year, the convention was virtual due to the COVID-19 pandemic — and pledged that he would chart a different course after the “America First” years of Donald Trump’s presidency.

“One of President Biden’s top priorities when he took office was to rebuild and revitalize the transatlantic relationship,” Amanda Sloat, former director for Europe at Biden’s National Security Council, said in an interview.

Trump imposed tariffs on allies, withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, challenged NATO partners over their defense spending, and defended Russian President Vladimir Putin despite US intelligence concerns about Russian interference in US elections.

When Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, Biden mustered a united response from the G7 and NATO partners. He coordinated sweeping sanctions on Russia, sent more US troops to NATO's eastern flank, made an unprecedented visit to Kiev in the midst of the war and sent billions of dollars in weapons and financing to Ukraine.

“NATO is bigger, stronger and more vibrant than it has been in 75 years — having just added Finland and about to add Sweden,” Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security adviser, told reporters on Wednesday, noting that partners have boosted their military spending. also.

The White House said Harris will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday while they are in Munich.

Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump on January 23 in Nashua, New Hampshire.

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Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump on January 23 in Nashua, New Hampshire.

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Trump is back in the headlines, worrying European leaders

But European allies are concerned about the presidential elections next November. Trump tightened his grip on the Republican Party and exerted his influence over Republicans in Congress. Then came his comments last weekend, when he said Russia should “do whatever it wants” with allies who are not contributing their fair share to NATO.

That alarmed European leaders, said Wolfgang Ischinger, a former German ambassador who chaired the Munich security conference for years. “Let me be very frank: I do not believe it is in the best interest of America's European allies to re-elect Donald Trump,” he told NPR.

While Harris can make a strong case in favor of Biden's actions, it is difficult for her to answer what would happen if she and Biden lose in November.

“The big question in the room is, in light of the comments made by former President Trump, particularly over this past weekend — if Trump is re-elected, will the commitment that Vice President Harris will certainly express so strongly, will it still stand?” said Stephen Flanagan, a Europe expert at the RAND Corporation who has worked under Republican and Democratic administrations.

Ischinger said Europeans are increasingly thinking about Plan B, which is how to defend themselves if there is a future in which they cannot depend on the United States. But experts say that, realistically, Europe is not ready for this scenario anytime in the near future.

Harris speaks at an event in Big Bend, Wisconsin, on January 22.

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Harris speaks at an event in Big Bend, Wisconsin, on January 22.

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Harris is in the spotlight, too

There's a lot at stake for Harris herself in Munich, too. She has spoken at the conference twice before, but this trip comes amid growing questions about Biden's age. If elected to a second term, Biden will be 82 years old on Inauguration Day. This puts more emphasis on Harris' ability to fill that role, should the need arise.

“There will be more attention focused on the possibility of succession than if there were two presidential candidates on the lists in their 40s or 50s,” said Joel Goldstein of Saint Louis University, an experienced constitutional lawyer. On the vice president's desk.

Harris is newer to the diplomatic scene than many other politicians in Washington. She was a senator for only four years before becoming vice president, but she has been making connections on the global stage in the past few years, traveling to Africa, Asia, Central America, the Middle East and Europe.

However, many of the administration's most difficult diplomatic negotiations have fallen to other key members of Biden's inner circle, such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who will also be in Munich.

Harris will be closely monitored, and her meetings will be a sign of her control of the issues. “You will need to step up to the plate in terms of the messages you send,” said Rachel Rizzo of the Atlantic Council.

He added, “Trips like this to Munich are very high-level, and very important for the United States' role in Europe, as they will be viewed by Europeans as a pillar of strength, stability, and continuity for the United States.”