War in Ukraine: Why fear an “unprecedented food crisis” in 12 to 18 months?

The President spoke at the conclusion of the NATO summit this Thursday, March 24, on the situation in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Emmanuel Macron was very wary of the consequences of the war on world food.

We are entering an unprecedented food crisis

The head of state warned that “we are entering an unprecedented food crisis” and described the looming situation as “serious”. The main problem is based on the inability to maintain agricultural activity in Ukraine, one of the main producers of cereals.

At the same time, international sanctions imposed on Vladimir Putin make the country inaccessible to wheat production. Can the world do without these two products? The question is worrisome because Ukraine and Russia alone produce 29% of the wheat in international circuits.

Risk of famine in 12 to 18 months

If the effects of the war in Ukraine are already felt almost everywhere in Europe, African countries may be the first to be hit the hardest. According to UNCTAD data, 25 African countries exported more than 33% of their wheat from Ukraine and Russia between 2018 and 2020.

On Thursday, Emmanuel Macron pleaded for “an emergency plan to issue shares in the event of a crisis to avoid situations such as stock shortages and moderate price rises.” He urged other producing countries to increase their production quotas and put pressure on Vladimir Putin.

What are the solutions?

Despite the war, the French president invited his Russian ally to allow the Ukrainians to sow wheat, and he took responsibility for the “inevitable famine” that would come in 12 to 18 months.

In an effort to curb the risks, the European Commission may decide to suspend the provision forcing European grain producers to leave 4% of their land fallow. Measured action to avoid soil erosion and over-exploitation.

But environmentalists are warning of the consequences of repealing the rules. Exploitation of these lands left “dormant” can lead to significant imbalances in biodiversity.