Arsenal and Man United and the story of two defenses operating at completely different levels

On Sunday, Arsenal can complete the league double over Manchester United for the first time since the 2006-07 season. This will also be the first time they have won three in a row since September 1998.

In what is the ultimate indictment of the shift in power between the two clubs, Arsenal are expected to win at Old Trafford even with the pressure of it being their penultimate game in the title race.

For a long time, a win at Old Trafford could only be achieved if a team played out of bounds and United had a particularly bad day – and even then, that combination was often not enough.

Now, Arsenal prepare to face Erik Ten Hag’s side, confident that an average performance should provide them with, remarkably, at least 21 shots on target. This is the number Manchester United have conceded, on average, in matches during 2024. They have allowed 317 shots, compared to Arsenal’s 132, and have conceded 97 on target compared to Arsenal’s 30.

Even more telling is that the number they have conceded this calendar year is 13 more than Arsenal have conceded in their 36-game season so far.

United are a team whose basic defensive numbers are those of a team in the bottom third of the league. Arsenal is the team that is, by some distance, the best in the Premier League.

That’s why, although Arsenal’s 1-0 win in November 2020 was their only win in their last 16 Premier League visits to Old Trafford, they travel to Manchester as favorites, with recent trips to Brighton & Hove Albion and Wolverhampton Wanderers. And Tottenham Hotspur. It is seen as just as difficult, if not more so.

Last season, Arsenal’s confidence came from the way they started matches attackingly, but this time it’s about how they prevent the opposition from seeing their goal for almost 90 minutes in some cases.

Arsenal have conceded in just two of their past eight league games and David Raya has already collected the Golden Glove award, but with two games remaining, Arsenal could still finish with a clean sheet in 19 matches.

It will be the first time they have reached that total in the 21st century, with the previous highs of 23, 21 and 19 coming in 1999, 1994 and 1998 – although they are still a long way from Chelsea’s record 25 shutouts in 2004-05. .

Arteta relied on seven or eight basic pillars to form a team capable of maintaining the level of challenge for the title.

The key to Arsenal having the fewest goals in the league has been their ability to block shots. When defending the lead in matches against rival clubs or in European competition, they were happy to sit deep and protect their advantage for periods of the match.

Of all opposition possession sequences that end in Arsenal’s third, only 33 per cent result in a shot. It is the second best figure in the league in the table with Manchester United in second place, at 46 per cent.

United regularly leave huge gaps in midfield, caught between the two opposing ideas of pressing forward and sitting deep to protect defenders not suited to this front-foot approach.

Arsenal’s trio of Gabriel, William Saliba and Ben White offer the gifts of availability and reliability, but they are also tailor-made for the aggressive style of play that Arsenal employ.

In Arteta’s first full season, their defensive line averaged 22 meters from their goal, but this has creeped forward year on year to the point where it is now 8 meters higher.

It is a huge difference and enhances Arsenal’s ability to press with conviction, knowing that they are compact and with no major gaps in front of the defence.

Arsenal play with a clear identity when in possession, but when not in possession, they are just as compact.

Kai Havertz has led the press as a striker in eight of their last 11 league games, making them a stronger all-round side.

They will force United forward, but if Ten Hag’s side try to play through them, they are more than capable of counter-attacking. Remember, this is the side of the game that the United manager said he wanted his team to become the best in the world when speaking earlier in the season.

High rebounds are a key part of Arsenal’s game, and 23% of them end in a shot. They now fire that shot much faster when the opponent’s form is messy, and they pull the trigger within 10 seconds of recovery less than 10 percent of the time.

Arsenal’s victory in the Covid era in 2020 seemed momentous because of how out of the picture they were. In the three-and-a-half years since, Arteta has gotten his team to a psychological place where they feel comfortable taking to these previously intimidating grounds.

(Top image: Alex Bantling/Getty Images)