After more than six months of fighting, who will win the battle for ammunition reserves?

In months, Kiev Suddenly before that, he begged his allies to supply him with large quantities of weapons Launch a massive counterattack. For its part, Russia continues to bombard its enemy, but appears to have experienced difficulties in supplying its troops as it advances into Ukrainian territory, stretching the front line and destroying all infrastructure.

Everything from abandoned tanks to rocket launchers are delivered in drips and drops War in Ukraine Also war of equipment and stock. But who can win this battle? Can Ukraine win? Without precious western ammunition ? Can Russia finish dry? 20 minutes Philippe Mikault, director of the European Center for Strategic Analysis, takes stock of the situation.

What do we know about the state of ammunition and arsenals in each country?

In essence, the state of the stocks of the Russian or Ukrainian army cannot be known precisely because “this data is classified,” recalls Philippe Mikhalt. 20 minutes. Nevertheless, the expert on strategic issues recalls one important point: “Ukrainians are very inferior” and Russians have seriously damaged defense sector “The. World’s second largest exporter » Weapon.

Thus, without any help or subject to constraints, Moscow It can operate its entire armaments industry in combat service. “And at stake, Russia went to war with massive amounts of weapons and ammunition from the Soviet era,” says the researcher. He judges that thousands of tanks from the Cold War era, now obsolete, can be repaired without the need for Western technology. However, the war lasted longer than expected The Kremlin“The chances of Russian military fatigue are much higher than Ukrainian military fatigue,” Bruno Terdris, deputy director of the Black Sea Security Forum and the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) recently assessed in the Balkans.

Kubyansk, wreckage of an Iranian-made Shahed-136 stray munition.

First visual confirmation of Iranian drones in Russian service. pic.twitter.com/qEjuJVrj9s

—OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 13, 2022

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Russia may have another trick: For days, rumors about North Korea’s arms deliveries have been circulating. Iran. Wreckage of a drone shot down by Ukrainian security forces has been found and can be proven to be Iranian-made. Meanwhile, Philippe Mikault “refuses to comment” until confirmation.

Is Ukraine Suspended From Western Aid?

The Ukrainian arms industry is one of the main targets of Russian bombing, making it difficult for Kiev to manufacture and repair its own weapons. Thus Ukraine finds itself “dependent Help from Western industry Sums up Philippe Michault. This poses several limitations. “The industry needs to be more productive to bring goods to the Ukrainian border and further onward Ukrainians are trained “, he lists. More complicated than Russia, at least it can bring its weapons to the border much faster.

But can this help last? “The German example is enlightening”, emphasizes the director of CEAS Berlin restricts its arms exports. “The German army is so weakened that the equipment to supply it to Ukraine will already have to work”, not to mention “the Germans realize that German industry is impossible without Russian gas”. For the researcher, “as time passes and winter approaches, divisions will grow within the EU” in the Ukrainian file.

Whoever empties his ammo first is the loser?

“We cannot win a war without ammunition or men,” quips Philip Mikault. There is a lack of information on the number of engaged and inactive men Disrupts the reading of the balance of forces. Thus, the researcher recalled that kyiv had killed more than 50,000 Russian soldiers since the beginning of the war, but “never communicated about its own losses.” However, “given the abundant evidence of the power of the Russian artillery, one can imagine heavy losses”. A tight run on equipment, forced to resort to general mobilization, the Ukrainian army plays its counteroffensive at 100% of its capacity.

On the other hand, “we saw the pictures Abandoned tanksBut no corpses”, notes Philippe Mikault, which leads him to say that “the Russians are economical in men”, while they are outnumbered at the front. In an interview with AFP, Pierre Grosser, a co-researcher at the SIRIS Observatory, judged for his part that “the Russians are in danger of losing the war of annihilation. , who is more likely to launch a counter-attack”. Especially “with the most important bleeding”, concludes Philippe Mikault.