Analysis of US trial results for 2024 (so far)

2024 US Olympic Trials

Thanks to Barry Revzin for running the numbers.

We’re eight sessions into the 2024 US Olympic Trials, which means we have a wealth of data to comb through between sessions. Before this meeting started, we only had input data, but now there are actual results available to us.

You’ve probably heard superlatives like “fastest primers ever,” but let’s dive into the numbers to see if that’s true or a gross exaggeration.

Who drops, who adds, and who interrupts the trials?

This meeting the It comes together to prepare it, and it acts as a pressure cooker once the athletes get here. It’s not a meet where many swimmers miss time from seed, and the data reflects that.

Of all the athletes, only 27.22% decreased their entry time. Liam Bell He has the honor of having the biggest drop (percentage) so far in the match. His 2.26-second drop in the 100 breaststroke moved him from 43rd seed to fourth place.

It’s another bell that tops the standings in women’s events. Lucy Bell She dropped by 1.29 seconds in the 100 fly, rising from 72nd to 19th place.

We also divided the data into two other categories to answer some questions we had. Earlier this week, I assumed the home crowd was elevating Indiana’s swimmers to outstanding swimming, and as a group they were above average.

It is also worth noting that the “Indiana” category includes all athletes representing the LSC, not necessarily swimmers who were born and raised in the Hoosier State. For this Chris GiulianoImproved rankings lead here. The Notre Dame-trained swimmer hails from Pennsylvania.

The addition of the Sandpipers class was something I brought up to Barry half-jokingly, but it would be interesting to see. Again, this only includes athletes who currently represent the Sandpipers, so this row does not include alums Bella Sims Who entered with Florida. Only four Sandpipers have had the best times so far, but the majority Ron AitkenTrained swimmers were exposed to experiments while swimming.

Tracking the number of athletes who have tried out at a meet is an interesting metric to track the level of performance displayed. Some athletes target this meet and only recently made the qualifying time, so it makes sense that we would see some decline when it comes time for the big meet.

Check out the table that breaks it down by event instead:

Not all swimmers in the ‘biggest drop’ category secured a place in the semi-finals or finals, which is evidence of the hypothesis that trials are not just about team selection; It’s also about giving the next generation the opportunity to compete with the best in a high-pressure production environment.

What gets the job done

Finally, let’s take a look at how the qualifying times change for each round. We’re tracking it all the way back to 2012. You can draw your own conclusions in the comments, but I want to highlight the most gruesome stat: how fast it took the Olympic team to get to the 100 butterfly. The second-place time went almost a full second faster, which sounds ridiculous on paper but makes more sense when you remember that there were three generational talents all running at once in that final.

The women’s 400m is an anomaly here. All the other 400m events are getting faster to make the team, but the 400m seems to have taken a step back.

The men’s and women’s 100 freestyle finals are tonight so we have unbiased data, but it’s interesting to note the difference in the prelims and semifinal times so far. Both events took a big step forward in 16th place, but the women’s event was almost back to 2016 level after the semi-finals. On the other hand, the men’s event was the fastest of the last four quads over the two rounds so far.

Semi-final making times

Times make finals

Olympic team formation times

What comes next?

There are still nine sessions remaining, including this morning, so stay tuned for more data analysis throughout the week.