California requires that half of all heavy-duty trucks sold by 2035 be electric

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration plans on Friday to give California the legal authority to require that half of the garbage trucks, tractors, cement mixers and other heavy vehicles sold in the state must be fully electric by 2035, an aggressive plan aimed at cleaning up the worst pollutants on the road.

According to people familiar with the decision, the lead truck base would exceed federal requirements, which is why the state needed the administration’s permission to activate it. It follows an ambitious regulation California passed last year that requires all new passenger cars sold in the state to be electric by the same target year, 2035.

Together, the two steps would push California to the front of the race to eliminate carbon dioxide emissions from transportation, the sector of the US economy that generates the most greenhouse gases.

As the fifth largest economy in the world, California has enormous market power; Its new rules could force changes across the auto industry and spur other countries to follow suit. In fact, six other states have already adopted truck rules modeled on California’s new requirements but have been awaiting federal action in order to enforce them.

But some say the mandate that half of heavy-duty trucks sold will be electric by 2035 is so ambitious it’s almost impossible, given that less than 2 percent of heavy-duty trucks sold in the United States last year were all-electric.

A legal waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency allows California to move forward with new federal standards on global warming truck pollution, which the Biden administration hopes to unveil later this year. In December, the Environmental Protection Agency announced a new federal rule to reduce nitrogen oxide from heavy-duty vehicles, the first time in 20 years that it has tightened exhaust emissions from trucks.

“This is a moment to mark because it’s a preview of the order of magnitude of change in the industry,” Gavin Newsom, the Democratic governor of California, said in an interview. There is power in these compromises and that power is simulation. Through these concessions, we adopt principles and policies that lead to innovation and investment.”

California has a history of being at the forefront when it comes to environmental policy, often setting the pace for the federal government. Bold new state standards for passenger cars are helping craft a federal proposal for national auto pollution rules, which could be revealed as early as mid-April.

The electric truck mandate was approved by the California Air Resources Board in 2020 but required an EPA waiver because it is more stringent than federal standards.

When it goes into effect next year, the rule will relate to sales of trucks that range in size from delivery trucks to large rigs. By 2035, 55 percent of delivery trucks and vans, 75 percent of buses and larger trucks, and 40 percent of tractors, trailers, and other large rigs sold in the state will be fully electric.

Prices for electric vans start at around $100,000 and can reach the high six figures. Buyers, including delivery and construction companies, can get some help from last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, which over the next decade offers up to $40,000 in tax credits to all-electric truck buyers.

But a fierce legal battle to undermine the rules is already progressing in the courts. Republican attorneys general from 17 states are challenging California’s ability to enact state pollution standards that are more stringent than federal ones. That case, Ohio v. EPA, is scheduled to be heard in the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in May. Whatever the decision in this case, it is expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court.

Requiring manufacturers to sell a certain percentage of electric cars is a step further than regulating pollution from exhaust pipes, said Stephen J. Bradbury, who served as chief legal counsel for the Department of Transportation during the Trump administration.

“If through regulation California can force automakers and truck manufacturers to change the types of vehicles they produce, it will effectively impose those restrictions on the rest of the nation,” said Mr. Bradbury. “And you haven’t yet had a working case that has proven to the market that you can actually make battery-powered heavy-duty trucks workable.”

Truck drivers said the cost and difficulty of complying with the new regulations would be prohibitive.

“A lot of the truck rules in California that have been adopted and enacted recently are starting to drive truckers out of state,” said Jay Grimes, director of federal affairs for the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, which represents truckers. “Drivers don’t want to work in California anymore. They’re skeptical about the rapid timeline for this transition to electric trucks. Can a truck driver get paid to take them on a highway for two or three days? Is the technology ready for prime time?”

Electric truck batteries can weigh thousands of pounds more than conventional combustion engines, which limits the amount of cargo truck drivers can haul, Mr. Grimes said. Others questioned whether enough charging stations for electric trucks would be built fast enough to support large rigs on long trips.

Some of those concerns are merited, said Drew Kodjak, executive director of the International Council on Clean Transportation, a research organization.

“There is a great deal of challenge with the electrification of heavy vehicles,” he said. “But there are elements that lead to optimism.”

For example, for trucking, construction, and delivery companies that operate fleets of trucks, the combination of government tax incentives and savings on gasoline maintenance can add significantly over time.

“Companies like FedEx look at the bottom line over the total life of the vehicle,” Mr. Kodjak said. “And when they look at the long term, the accounts for that become more optimistic.”