CIA Director: The war in Ukraine weakened Putin

The war in Ukraine has “quietly eroded” the authority of Russian President Vladimir Putin, CIA Director William Burns wrote in an article published Tuesday.

While Putin's grip on power is unlikely to weaken soon, Mr. Burns wrote in Foreign AffairsThe discontent had “eroded the Russian leadership and the Russian people,” allowing the CIA to recruit more spies.

The agency filmed a series of videos aimed at recruiting Russian officials. the most recent, Released last week, Russians are encouraged to securely submit information to the CIA using a secure browser on the dark web. The latest video raises their anger at corruption in the Russian government.

While the US government did not say how many spies were recruited using the videos, officials said the agency would not have continued to pressure them on Telegram and YouTube if they were not effective. Mr. Burns echoed this sentiment in his article.

“This current of discontent creates a once-in-a-generation recruiting opportunity for the CIA,” he wrote. “We don't let it go to waste.”

Part of Putin's weakness stems from his handling of a rebellion by members of Russia's most powerful mercenary group last year. Burns wrote that he appeared “detached and indecisive” in the face of the rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group.

Mr. Putin “eventually settled his scores with Prigozhin,” Mr. Burns wrote, referring to the mercenary leader’s death in a suspicious plane crash. Despite this, Prigozhin's criticism of the Russian leadership to the Russian people “is not going away any time soon,” Burns wrote.

“For many in the Russian elite, the question was not whether the emperor had no clothes, but rather why it was taking him so long to get dressed,” Burns said.

He added that Russia had rebuilt its military industrial production, but its economy was severely wounded by the war. In the long term, Russia is “determined” to become a vassal of China, dependent on Beijing for trade and technology.

Ukraine faces challenges in the war, but it has achieved dramatic results. Russia's efforts to modernize its military forces were “hollowed out,” Burns wrote, and 315,000 Russians were killed or wounded.

Ukraine has also suffered huge losses, although Mr Burns did not address this directly. US officials struggle to accurately estimate the number of lives lost in Ukraine.

Putin's strategy is to continue crushing Ukraine and try to withstand Western support. But Burns wrote that Ukraine is capable of “shattering Putin’s arrogance” by striking deeper behind the battlefield’s hardened front lines. In the past, US officials have worried that Ukrainian attacks might prompt Russia to escalate, perhaps even by conducting a nuclear test as a warning to Ukraine and the West.

Mr. Burns acknowledged that concerns about nuclear escalation were valid but noted that they should not be exaggerated.

“Putin may once again engage in nuclear bashing, and it would be foolish to completely dismiss escalatory risks,” he wrote. “But it would also be foolish to intimidate them unnecessarily.”

The key to Ukraine's success, Burns wrote, is continuing to provide American aid.

Congress is considering a new military aid package, but it has become entangled with the politics of the border and immigration deal on Capitol Hill.

Burns wrote that cutting ties with Ukraine would be a grave mistake.

“Keeping the arms flowing will put Ukraine in a stronger position if the opportunity for serious negotiations arises,” Burns said. It provides an opportunity to ensure a long-term win for Ukraine and a strategic loss for Russia; Ukraine can protect its sovereignty and rebuild, while Russia is left to deal with the permanent costs of Putin's foolishness.

Mr. Burns wrote that the Russian invasion of Ukraine signaled the beginning of a new era for the CIA. He spoke about the early warning of the upcoming invasion provided by intelligence agencies to the Biden administration, Ukraine and its allies.

But the new era, Burns said, was about taking advantage of new technologies, including artificial intelligence. These changes have transformed the way the CIA collects intelligence, allowing it to analyze information faster and more efficiently.

“As much as the world changes, espionage remains an interaction between humans and technology,” he wrote.

While there will be secrets that only humans can gather, Mr. Burns continued, the CIA must “combine mastery of emerging technologies with people-to-people skills and individual boldness that has always been at the heart of our profession.”