Climate: Russia may have accelerated the planet’s energy transition despite itself – 10/27/2022 at 08:14

A section of displaced and melted sea ice photographed by a NASA aircraft during the Arctic Sea Ice Survey mission on July 19, 2022 (AFP / Kerem Yücel)

A paradoxical and climate-positive effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is that global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions are expected to peak as early as 2025, after increased investment in sustainable energies due to a “deep restructuring” of global energy markets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated on Thursday. .

Eight days before the COP27 world climate conference in Egypt, the agency warned against “breaks” between rich and poor countries in terms of investment in low-carbon energies in a 2022 annual report published Thursday. Attempt to “bridge” this “concern gap”.

“The global energy crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing deep and long-term changes that have the potential to accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system,” the IEA said in a presentation document for its report.

Global Warming Imbalances (AFP/)

“Energy markets and public policies have changed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, not just now, but for decades to come,” said Fatih Birol, the company’s chief executive.

While some countries are currently seeking to increase or diversify their supply of oil or gas – fossil fuels with high CO2 emissions – many are accelerating their structural changes towards cleaner energies, underlines the IEA, a branch of the OECD that supports many. Countries.

– “crack” –

Europe’s “disruption” to Russian gas happened even last year at a pace “few thought possible”, the IEA adds.

Russia “failed” to divert its gas flows that previously went to Europe to other countries.

CO2 emissions: Electricity generation far from accounting ( AFP / )

In any of the three scenarios studied by the agency, Russia’s gas and oil export levels will not return to where they were in 2021, and its share of the global oil and gas market will be halved by 2030.

For the first time, three scenarios examined each year by the agency identified a peak or plateau in the consumption of each of the fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil) that are suffocating the planet and warming it.

Climate investments (in the central scenario, based on commitments already announced by governments based on the “De-Inflation Act” in the US, “Fit for 55” and “RePowerEu” in Europe, “Green Transition” in Japan, . .), global energy-related CO2 emissions to 37 billion tons in 2025 will peak and then decline to 32 billion tonnes in 2050.

– 2.5 degrees –

But despite these efforts, global average temperatures will rise by around 2.5 degrees by 2100, which is “not enough to avoid severe climate impacts”.

Key points of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on the effects of global warming on people (AFP / )

It reiterates the need for massive investment in clean energy. Especially to decarbonize the industry.

In its core scenario, these investments must exceed $2 trillion by 2030, and they must rise to $4 trillion in 2050 to meet a scenario of net zero emissions.

“Major international efforts are called for to reduce the worrying gap between advanced economies and emerging or developing countries,” the IEA says.

Former French climate ambassador Laurence Dubiana responded to AFP, saying the report clearly shows that “investments in clean energy need to triple by 2030, and gas is a dead end.”

“With an abundance of wind, solar and other renewable energies, Africa can lead the world on the path of change and pave the way for energy sovereignty,” answered Mohamed Adowe, founder and director of climate think tank Power Shift Africa, in his role. .