If the far-right is elected, there could be a “danger of contagion” in the EU

The timing for a political crisis could not have been worse Italy. At the same time the European Union has united itself Its support for Ukraine in front of him Russian occupation On February 24, Italian President Mario Draghi was forced to resign Thursday morning after being rejected by three parties of his coalition in the Senate on Wednesday evening. The president, Sergio Mattarella, immediately decided to dissolve the legislature, prompting early elections.

Italy now faces the risk of a majority right-wing party taking power. Because the top favorite in the upcoming election is the so-called “center-right” coalition, which unites the right-wing party Forza Italia. Silvio Berlusconiand the extreme right represented by La Ligue du Tribune populist antimigrants Matteo Salvini and Fratelli d’Italia. What could be the consequences for Italy, the EU and France? 20 minutes The question was posed to Dominique Moissy, a special adviser at the Institut Montaigne, who said the risk was to spread the virus to other European countries, including France.

What is the timetable for assembly elections?

These early elections, which are due to the dissolution of the legislature by the Italian president, are due to be held in late September or early October. The Italian media presented several possible dates for these elections: September 18 and 25 or October 2. If so many dates are mentioned, the only certainty: they must be held within 70 days of the dissolution of parliament. Thereafter, Parliament must be convened within 20 days of the referendum. Meanwhile, the government continues to manage current affairs.

The situation is complicated by the budget, which has to be presented to Parliament by October 15. Organizing elections, campaigning, appointing the government and then its inauguration disrupts this calendar. But according to EchoesThe date could be brought before the election and allow Mario Draghi his last act in power.

What political future is shaping up in Italy?

Polls agree to put the far-right parties as favorites in the race, ahead of Giorgia Meloni’s brothers in Italy, if not to sell the bear’s skin before killing it. According to a poll conducted by the SWG Institute on July 18, the latter leads the Democratic Party (22%) and the League of Matteo Salvini (14%) with almost 24% of voting intentions. Sulphurous former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s party, Forza Italia, should win 7.4% of the vote and Giuseppe Conte’s 5 Star Movement (M5S) 11.2%.

According to Dominique Moisey, “we still have visions of what will happen” and “it has been mentioned that Georgia Meloni will win. Mario Draghi “, he predicts. “This vision of a coalition of far-right parties taking over is worrying,” he added.

What were the consequences for Italy?

In fact, this rise of radical parties harms Italy’s image. “Thanks to Mario Draghi, a country that is once again self-confident, legitimate and led by a rational and capable hand, will, for the first time, take a populist dimension with the risk of liberal democracy in the founding countries. The European Union”, predicted the special adviser of the Institute Montaigne.

For Italians, this has to do with a change in policy, particularly on the question of immigration. Italy is one of the countries on the front line facing the flow of refugees seeking to escape poverty, war or oppression. If the Frères d’Italie come out with Forza Italia and La Ligue on their side, the treatment of immigrants will be different, “less humane.” “If the populists had already been in power in Italy and they had been controlled so far, it would have been completely different,” warns Dominique Moisi.

What changes at the economic level?

And, although Mario Draghi has succeeded in imposing a program of major economic reforms that have made Italy a good student of the EU once again, this may soon change. “If this coalition comes to power, will it not engage in populist economic policy? asks Dominique Moisey. To further develop: “Knowing that the country is the third economy of the European Union, there is a risk of opening the coffers in favor of purchasing power, before any other consideration, which includes a risk to the balance of the European Union. »

If in the short term, this economic vision will benefit Italians, in the long term, on the other hand, it will be very bad, ” debt This will cast doubt on the stability of Italy,” says the expert.

What consequences can be expected for the EU?

If Dominic Moisse doesn’t believe in the possibility of an Italian-style Brexit, “the risk is contagious. If the Italians succeed in electing the far right, why not elect France tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow, other countries? Paradigm itself is dangerous”.

There is also the risk of coalitions of member states, particularly with far-right governments Hungary by Viktor Orban, with nationalism and populism. This will then raise the question of EU unity, especially in the hot file of war in Ukraine. “Giorgia Meloni followed the position of Mario Draghi in Russia, but not the position of Matteo Salvini or Civo Berlusconi, known for their closeness. Vladimir Putin “Dominique Moisey recalls.

Could France also undergo this power shift?

This trend, if confirmed in the autumn, is “not good news for Emmanuel Macron”. The French president and the former Italian prime minister had a privileged relationship, the expert underlines, as “two men who understand each other and appreciate each other”. Especially since Elysee Tenant and Matteo Salvini already share Old fights About Franco-Italian borderSome refugees try to cross.

“Thus there is a danger to Emmanuel Macron and the Franco-Italian relationship, and beyond that, to European unity, both in its image and in its choices in terms of foreign policy,” analyzes Dominique Moissy.