In Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni is a tough successor

He tweets faster than his shadow without worrying about the consequences. Muhusi KainerugapaSon of the President of Uganda Yoweri Museveni, continues to sow discord in his country with his outrageous and provocative travels. For example, in October 2022, it threatens to invade neighboring Kenya. “Me and my army, it won’t take me two weeks to take Nairobi,” he said on his favorite social network, Twitter.

Faced with a diplomatic outcry and a media storm, President Museveni has been forced to remove his son as Commander-in-Chief of the Ugandan Land Forces. The 78-year-old patriot, He rules his country with an iron fist For nearly 40 years, he has also been demanding that he leave Twitter.

But six months later, Muhusi Kainerugaba is still ubiquitous on the social network. Last week, the trainee at the prestigious Royal Military Academy of Sandhurst in England pledged to “send Ugandan soldiers to defend Moscow in case of imperialist threats”. He earlier accompanied his speech with a photo of President Putin calling for “respect for this man”.

Douglas Yates, a professor of African studies at the American Graduate School (AGS) in Paris, sums up the “irresponsible comments” made by the “heir to the palace,” and Muhusi Kynerugaba’s tweets are comparable to them. Former US President Donald Trump.

“Many politicians think they can act like Trump and say whatever they want. But eventually everyone, including Trump, will learn that words matter and have consequences.”

Put yourself in an “outside position.”

The effects were particularly visible in Ugandan domestic politics. Muhusi Kainerugaba, who has his own radio and television channel dedicated to his “MK” movement – a name inspired by his initials – no longer hides his father’s desire for success. He tweeted twice and then deleted messages about a 2026 presidential run. “The older generation has been in charge for 40 years,” he says, adding that he represents the youth.

This is not the first time Muhusi Kynerugaba, 48, has scratched the National Resistance Movement (NRM), the political body founded by Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power in Uganda since 1986. In December, he tweeted that the NRM was “too much”. reactionary system in the country” and that it “definitely does not represent the people of Uganda”.

Much like Donald Trump’s populism, Muhusi Kainerukaba is “trying to distance himself from power and place himself in the position of an outsider,” observes Douglas Yates.

The tweets also raise a burning question about Yoweri Museveni’s succession, notes Christoph Didega, an expert on governance and conflict in Central and East Africa at the University of Antwerp.

“Given Museveni’s advanced age, this is no longer fiction,” the researcher said. “Power is too centralized and concentrated in the hands of his family. It is very clear that after 2021 Museveni has put his son forward to test the waters and see if he is fit for the job.”

“However, his tweets are creating more and more anxiety within the political and military establishment, the ‘historic’ generation that came to power with Museveni”, continues Christophe Didega, adding that this communication may be a way of politically correcting a stance.

“Why does Muhusi tweet so provocatively? Some see it as a simple trait of his personality. Others believe it’s a clear strategy inspired by Donald Trump’s political rise.”

Yoweri Museveni’s popularity is waning

Since Yoweri Museveni and his “historic” seizure of power, many things have changed in Uganda. In 1986, After five years of guerrilla warfare, the NRM ousted dictator Milton Obote from power and then enjoyed the image of a stabilizing force. Even today, Yoweri Museveni can count on the support of the rural world and the elderly, who experienced the profound economic and security changes of the 1990s and 2000s.

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But criticism has grown stronger since a constitutional change in 2005 allowed Yoweri Museveni to run for a third term. In 2017, the “M7” also removed the age limit for access to the highest office, paving the way for a lifetime presidency.

But in the meantime, Ugandan youth continued to protest. One of the youngest countries in the world, nearly 80% of the population is under the age of 35.

“The regime’s popularity has been declining for about 25 years. Since young people only know a period of partial peace, it doesn’t make much sense for them to know that Museveni pacified the country”, analyzes Christophe Didega. “What they want is jobs, prosperity and infrastructure.”

“A regime’s greatest fear is such a scenario.”Arab Spring“Incited by the youth,” adds the expert. “The regime has built part of its foundation by resorting to corruption and nepotism, but this has hindered economic growth and the development of public services, which are its legitimacy among the youth. . . . So coercion has become a key component of the regime.”

The rise of bobby wine

Kizza Besigye, who was Yoweri Museveni’s personal physician during the Ugandan civil war, has long been a key opponent of the regime and later became a minister in his government. After a tussle between the two, Kissah Besigye takes over as head of the Forum for Democratic Transition. In 2006, an electoral dispute erupted, revealing massive ballot box stuffing in favor of Yoweri Museveni.

Ten years later, the president’s former traveling companion was accused of “treason” and threatened and imprisoned on several occasions. He will not contest the January 2021 presidential election.

During this new election – tainted by strong repression, according to experts – the image of the singer Poppy wine Kizza replaced Besiki as the main opponent of the Ugandan regime.

Bobby Wine used Afrobeat music to rally young voters. Raga songs (a sub-genre of reggae) are like “edutainment”, understand the mix between education and entertainment. A concept marked by his lyrics of success “Sidukha”That means “wake up,” published in 2016: “When leaders become traitors, when leaders become torturers, when freedom of expression becomes a target to be eradicated, resistance becomes our position.”

“Bobi Wine is a threat of an entirely different nature to the Ugandan establishment than Kizza Besigye. Besigye represents old-school politics to the majority of young people,” says Ben Sheppard, a former UK Foreign Office adviser on the Great Lakes. region.

After Yoweri Museveni’s 2021 victory was announced, Bobi Wine accused the presidential vote of rigging and called it “the most rigged election in Uganda’s history”. Following the election, it They were put under house arrest for ten days. After filing the case, He finally backed offHe argued that the Supreme Court judges were committed to President Museveni’s cause.

“One comes from the ghetto, the other from the palace”

However, these events did not dampen Bobbi Wine’s determination. Interviewed on France 24 in September 2021, the protestor assured that “it is only a matter of time” before President Museveni “falls into the dustbin of history”. He then called on Ugandans to “liberate” them from “dictatorship”.

“He was an icon for Ugandan youth” and “the first real foreigner to become a major opponent of the regime,” recalls Christophe Tideka, especially since Bobi Wine was from Buganda in central Uganda, not from the West. Dominant area in the political life of the country.

“However, being from central Uganda is both a blessing and a curse because he could never gain popularity outside that region,” the researcher clarifies.

Predictably, the pair have been bitterly at loggerheads in recent years, with Bobi Wine calling Muhusi Kynerugaba the “brutal son” of an “arrogant dictator” while “MK” sees him as nothing more than a “buffalo” in his opposition to food.

“There is a certain similarity between them”, explains Christoph Didega. “Both claim to represent the youth, although they do so from completely different positions: one comes from the ghetto, the other from the presidential palace.”

According to the expert, the popularity that Muhusi Kainerugaba was able to achieve remains questionable, as well as the effectiveness of his communication strategy on social networks. “Muhusi’s tweets are being followed with great amusement in Uganda and it is clear that he wants to play along with Trump. But it is hard today to know what he will ultimately be credited with in terms of political capital and what that means.

This article was adapted from the English by Grégoire Sauvage. Need to find the original Here.