April 14, 2024

Ferrum College : Iron Blade Online

Complete Canadian News World

Latest weather forecast for the solar eclipse on April 8

Latest weather forecast for the solar eclipse on April 8

AUSTIN (KXAN) — It's almost here, and it may be the most important weather forecast for millions of people in the path of, or heading into, the path of the 2024 total solar eclipse. Many of those people are coming to Texas to watch.

KXAN will update this page daily with the latest Central Texas Weather First Warning Team forecast for April 8, as well as weather updates for the rest of Texas. On the day, this page will receive multiple updates as conditions evolve.

Current forecast for April 8

With just over a week until the celestial event, the eclipse forecast looks mostly cloudy and possibly wet.

As it stands, KXAN is forecasting mostly cloudy skies and a 30% chance of rain on Monday, April 8 in all 15 Central Texas counties we cover.

Eclipse forecast (updated March 31, 2024)

With any luck, we could still get some breaks from the sun during the afternoon and potentially hold off the rain until later.

Cover of clouds

Remember, it can be cloudy all day, but if the clouds break during a total eclipse, you're in good shape. The opposite is also true. One large, poorly placed cloud during a sunny day can ruin the whole.

However, cloud forecasts in our best models currently look mostly cloudy.

Both the European Community (ECMWF) and US (GFS) models give a 90% chance that we will have more than 50% of the sky covered in clouds during the afternoon of April 8.

GFS cloud cover on April 8 (Weatherbell)
GFS cloud cover on April 8 (Weatherbell)
Cloud cover for ECMWF on April 8 (Weatherbell)
Cloud cover for ECMWF on April 8 (Weatherbell)

Possibility of rain

Many of our long-term computer models indicate that the 24-hour chance of rain ending on April 8 at 7pm is between 40-60%, which is actually fairly high given how far out our forecast is.

See also  CHIPS Act Approves NASA International Space Station Operations Through 2030

Our “best blend” model known as the NBM (National Blend of Models) is already spewing out a few tenths of an inch of measurable rain over much of Central Texas from 1pm to 7pm on April 8.

NBM 6-hour precipitation ending April 8 at 7pm (Weatherbell)
NBM 6-hour precipitation ending April 8 at 7pm (Weatherbell)

From a more formal standpoint, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center puts most of Texas at “wettest” for its 6-10 day precipitation forecast, which covers the period April 6-10.

Rainfall forecast for April 6-10 (CPC/NOAA)
Rainfall forecast for April 6-10 (CPC/NOAA)

Forecasting process and challenges

We want to let you participate in the process and why this is a challenge.

We expect a period of less than five minutes after several days. If April 8 had been mostly sunny, but a single cloud covered the sun for those crucial few minutes, the solar eclipse would have been considered “devastating” for many who wanted to view it undisturbed, regardless of the weather throughout the day.

There's not a lot of room for error, so we'll be as specific as we can and feel comfortable with, especially in such a remote location.

The weather, especially for several days, can and will change. As we discover these changes, our expectations will change. You should expect that to change.

We don't recommend changing your plans after several days, but let our forecasts serve as a guide to help nudge you in the right direction with your best chances of being in the right place to get the offer you're hoping for.

Weather forecasting has improved dramatically, but forecasting within a five-minute window with 100% detail and accuracy is not possible, especially several days out. If there are uncertainties or important trends, we will communicate that, but meteorology is an imperfect science, and although it is improving, it is not as accurate as we would all like it to be.

See also  NASA administrator praises the success of Chandrayaan-3 in India

Timing is everything

Which time period matters? April 8 from noon to 3 p.m. marks approximately the entire length of the eclipse, including partial eclipse and totality for Central Texas.

The *most important* time is generally from 1:30 PM to 1:40 PM on April 8th.

In Austin, specifically, the total eclipse begins after 1:36 p.m. and ends just before 1:38 p.m.

How specific will we get?

Here's how we plan to responsibly predict the eclipse:

How specific can our forecasts be and when?
How specific can our forecasts be and when?

Now until Friday, April 5: We'll be forecasting April 8 with general cloud cover forecast for the day and precipitation chances for the day. We may be able to gauge whether these rain chances are earlier or later in the day, but it will be difficult to be more specific than that with any precision.

From Saturday, April 6 to Sunday, April 7: Hour-by-hour forecast for April 8, but with some uncertainty about exact cloud cover during the critical five-minute period of concern.

Monday 8 April: Our best possible forecast with numerous updates during the morning and midday on where any potential cloud cover will set up and any last minute adjustments

The Texas Path to Inclusivity

Here's a reminder of the eclipse's path across Texas. Between the red lines you will encounter the entirety. He will face the longer overall midfield.

Texas eclipse map
Texas eclipse map
Eclipse path in central Texas
Eclipse path in central Texas