Melting in Greenland makes strong ocean upwelling inevitable, study concludes

Irreparable consequences. Even if global warming were to stop, the melting of Greenland’s ice sheet would already lead to a significant rise in sea levels, one forecast says. “Caution” And potentially underestimated, warns a study published in the journal Natural climate changeMonday, August 29.

The study’s glaciologists found that, regardless of current warming and additional pollution from fossil fuels, the extent of Greenland’s ice sheet would shrink by at least 3.3% — an increase of 27.4 centimeters above sea level. A more accurate timetable suggests that most of this rise could occur by 2100. This means that current predictions are likely to be underestimates and should be taken seriously. “Dangerous Predictions”.

These estimates are also a lower bound because they do not take future warming into account, cautioned lead author Jason Box of the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). If the extreme melt conditions seen in 2012 were repeated every year, the water would rise by about 78 cm. Sea-level rise means the sinking of vast areas of low elevation and their populations.

In its 2021 Baseline Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that under a worst-case scenario for greenhouse gas emissions, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet would contribute 18 cm of sea level rise by 2100. Another major source of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet.

According to Jason Box, his team’s latest research suggests that these estimates “too weak”. According to him, the acceleration of sea level rise becomes a challenge if the climate crisis leads to immediate threats such as food insecurity. “It’s going to be on the agenda in a few decades because it’s going to start displacing more and more people.”He declared.

In its 2022 report on climate impacts, the IPCC says that even if warming is stabilized at 2°C to 2.5°C, “Coasts will reshape over thousands of years, affecting at least 25 megacities and inundating low-lying areas” 1.3 billion people lived in 2010.