Rivian Corporation (RIVN) Earnings Preview for Q1 2022

electric vehicle maker Rivian Cars It will report first-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. Wall Street analysts polled by Refinitiv expected a $1.44 per share loss in revenue of about $130.5 million — but those numbers are likely to be just a small part of the story.

The bigger story is Rivian’s outlook for the next few quarters. Like most automakers, Rivian has been plagued by global supply chain disruptions that began during the initial Covid-19 lockdowns and have worsened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. CEO RJ Scaringe Investors warned in March That Rivian won’t be able to produce as many vehicles in 2022 as originally planned, despite a ballooning order book.

The electric truck maker may also face questions about whether its biggest investor – Amazon And Ford Motor – They lose confidence. Rivian shares fell more than 15% Monday after the CNBC report Ford sold 8 million Of the total 102 million shares of the startup.

Here are three topics that might appear in Rivian’s results, if there were reports last week from high-profile companies in the EV space – FiskerAnd NicolaAnd Lucid Group – Provide any instructions.

Lucid said It now has more than 30,000 orders For an expensive Air Sedan, starting from 25000 last quarter — and that does not include a recent order of up to 100,000 Lucids over the next 10 years from the government of Saudi Arabia, CEO Peter Rawlinson said.

Nicolas said he had received “purchase orders, letters of intent and memoranda of understanding” for More than 500 of its heavy duty battery electric trucks. This may not sound like much, but Nicola has a lot to prove beyond Allegations that founder Trevor Melton misled investors. (Milton denies the allegations, but she nevertheless caused it precipitate departure.) That number is also likely to grow as more fleets have a chance to rate Nikola’s battery-powered Tre semitruck, which has received strong positive reviews from early customers, the company said.

For Fisker, she now has more than 40,000 reservations for her stylish Ocean SUV, which is due for launch late this year. In fact, demand is so strong that CEO Henrik Fisker said he is working with the company’s manufacturing partner Magna International to increase production capacity from 50,000 plans per year to as much as 150,000 per year by the end of 2023.

Back in March, Rivian said it happened About 83,000 reservations For pickup R1T and R1S SUV. Investors will be excited to see where that number stands on Wednesday.

Like Tesla Investors know that raising money is not difficult when the company’s stock price is high. But when the stock is under stress, raising money can be challenging.

With Rivian stock down about 90% from its 2020 high, the company has been forced to strike deals with private funds to raise funds on less than favorable terms. In its latest deal, announced last week, a private investor agreed to buy $200 million in convertible bonds — notes that will pay 8% interest if Nikola pays off cash, and 11% if he pays back in stock.

Chief Financial Officer Cherry House said Thursday that Lucid still had plenty of cash from the deal that went public, at nearly $5.4 billion. But with big plans to expand its own plant in Arizona, and a second plant planned in Saudi Arabia – with a total of $2 billion in capital expenditures planned for 2022 – the relatively wealthy Lucid may find itself in need of even more cash before it can get its hands on the cash. on her. for sustainable profitability. Unless its share price rises, it may be difficult to achieve a multibillion-dollar increase without significantly weakening existing shareholders.

Fisker said he still has about $1 billion in cash, but much of that is for costs related to starting production of its Ocean SUV. Gita Gupta Fisker, the company’s chief financial officer, said she expects Fisker’s total operating and capital expenditures to reach between $715 million and $790 million this year.

At that rate, Fisker may need to raise $1 billion or more in additional capital as soon as the second quarter of next year — and like Lucid, its stock is far from all-time highs, which will make a major secondary offering a challenge.

Unlike its competitors, Rivian may not need to worry about cash any time soon. It had $18.4 billion at the end of 2021, and said in March that it expects to burn about $8 billion through the end of 2023 as it ramps up production of R1S, R1T and an electric delivery truck for Amazon.

This cash advantage may be the one Rivian needs to revive its share price in the production-challenged EV landscape.