Rosenthal: How Cody Bellinger deal could impact Scott Boras' other top free agent prospects

This couldn't be what Scott Boras wanted. Now that Cody Bellinger, the first of the Boras Four, has come to an agreement on a contract that is less than expected, it could encourage teams pursuing other top free agent clients for Boras to stick around.

The opt-outs of his reported three-year, $80 million free agent pact with the Chicago Cubs give him the opportunity to return to the open market next offseason. Perhaps he will then reach a deal closer to what some expected for him, meaning six years and $162 million by then The athlete Tim Britton, 12, $264 million, MLBTradeRumors.com.

Carlos Correa followed that path, opting out of his initial three-year, $105.3 million contract with the Minnesota Twins for a six-year deal worth $200 million. He would have done better, too, had the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets not cited physical issues to back out of deals worth more than $300 million.

Boras' other clients — Adrian Beltre, Dallas Keuchel, and Mike Moustakas — also received smaller contracts initially, then made up most or all of the difference later. But to get such a deal, Bellinger will need to prove himself again. And he thought he did that last season, finishing 10th in National League MVP voting and winning National League Player of the Year honors.

His average annual value of $26.67 million ranks 37th all-time, just below Freddie Freeman and Carlos Rodon, both of whom are at $27 million. But Bellinger is entering his age-28 season just as another Boras client, Corey Seager, was when he made $325 million for 10 years with the Texas Rangers two seasons ago.

Seager was a shortstop, which helped his value. He also took home the 2016 NL Rookie of the Year Award and the 2020 World Series Most Valuable Player Award. In contrast, he came out of a season in which he played just 95 games due to a fracture in his right hand. His former team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, wondered if he could remain at shortstop. Others questioned its long-term durability.

Bellinger won the 2023 NL Comeback Player of the Year award with the Cubs. (Jeff Robinson/Sportswire Icon via Getty Images)

Bellinger, a center fielder and first baseman, was named 2017 NL Rookie of the Year and 2019 Player of the Year. He produced a much better platform season than Seager's, at least on the surface. But his .307 batting average, 26 home runs and .881 OPS were built on an average exit velocity that exceeded only one out of five major leaguers. Teams weren't convinced that Bellinger's rebound was sustainable, and that he had fully overcome his injury-marred struggles in the 2021 and '22 seasons.

Part of Bellinger's problem was that he entered a surprisingly tepid market. His options were limited in part by reduced spending by high-salary clubs such as the Mets and Padres and the uncertainty a number of teams faced over future local television revenues. Often times, Boras would identify – and exploit – at least one team that was willing to spend. Unlike the Dodgers, who selected replacements other than Bora, no such team has appeared this season.

Rival agents and some club officials will question whether Boras overplayed his hand, not only with Bellinger but also with the other members of Boras' back four — left-handers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery and third baseman Matt Chapman. Boras' initial expectations for Bellinger are unknown, but it's reasonable to wonder: What if his goal is lower? Could he have secured $120 million for four years? Five years, $145 million? Longer deal with lower AAV?

Now that Bellinger's terms are public, it would not be surprising for Snell, Montgomery and Chapman to accept similar “bridge” contracts. San Francisco Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, whose team could use one of their pitchers in addition to Chapman, is not budging on his stance on Boras. Other clubs may be less likely to back down.

Boras can blame the market downturn, bemoan the clubs' financial decline, and point to the flexibility Bellinger has over his future. Bellinger is sure to be fine. Two years ago, the Dodgers didn't offer him. Since then, Boras has earned $97.5 million in guaranteed money, bringing his career earnings to nearly $150 million. Bellinger still has a chance to get his blockbuster deal after this season or next season.

fair enough. The game is not over yet. But if you had told Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer at the beginning of the season that he was signing Bellinger to three years and $80 million, how do you think he would have reacted? With a smile wider than Lake Michigan. The smile he wears today.

(Top Image: Matt Derksen/Getty Images)