The study found that the Earth’s temperature is rising at a record rate

Land rate It is warming It reaches an all-time high in 2023 with a 92% surprise from last year Record-breaking heat Caused by humans, according to estimates by leading scientists.

The group of 57 scientists from around the world used UN-approved methods to examine what’s behind it Last year’s deadly heat wave. They said that even with a faster rate of warming, they see no evidence of a significant acceleration in human-caused climate change other than increased burning of fossil fuels.

Last year’s record temperatures were so unusual that scientists have been debating what caused the big jump and whether climate change is accelerating or whether other factors are at play.

“If you look at this world accelerating or going through a major turning point, things are not doing that,” said the study’s lead author Piers Forster, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds. “Things are warming up and getting worse in exactly the way we expected.”

He and a co-author said this is largely due to the buildup of carbon dioxide caused by increased use of fossil fuels.

Last year, the rate of warming was 0.26 degrees Celsius (0.47 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, compared to 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) the previous year. That’s not a huge difference, Forster said, though it makes this year’s rate the highest ever.

However, outside scientists said this report highlights an increasingly worrying situation.

“Choosing climate action has become a point of political debate, but this report should serve as a reminder to people that saving human lives is actually an essential choice,” said University of Wisconsin climate scientist Andrea Dutton, who was not part of the research team. International study team. “For me, this is something worth fighting for.”

The team of authors – formed to provide annual scientific updates between major scientific assessments conducted by the United Nations every seven to eight years – determined last year that the temperature was 1.43 degrees Celsius higher than the average for the period from 1850 to 1900, with 1.31 degrees From human activity. The other 8% of warming is due Mostly due to El Ninonatural and temporary warming in the central Pacific that changes weather around the world and also strange warming along the Atlantic and just other weather randomness.

On a larger time frame of 10 years, which scientists prefer over one year, the world has warmed by about 1.19 degrees Celsius (2.14 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, the report said in 2018. Journal of Earth System Science Data is found.

The report also said that as the world continues to use coal, oil and natural gas, the Earth will likely reach the point in 4.5 years where it can no longer avoid exceeding the internationally accepted threshold for temperature rise. 1.5°C (2.7°F). ).

This fits with previous studies that predicted the Earth could warm or stick to a temperature of at least 1.5 degrees by early 2029 if emissions trajectories do not change. Actual reaching 1.5 degrees could happen years away, Forster said, but it would be inevitable if all that carbon was used.

Scientists said it’s not the end of the world or humanity if temperatures exceed the 1.5 mark, but it would be very bad. Previous United Nations studies Dramatic changes to Earth’s ecosystem show that they are likely to cause temperatures to rise by 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius, including the loss of the planet’s coral reefs, Arctic sea ice, and species of plants and animals – along with more extreme weather events. Evil that kills people.

Last year’s temperature rise was more than just a small jump. It was particularly unusual in September, said study co-author Sonia Seneviratne, head of Earth Dynamics and Climate at ETH Zurich University.

Seneviratne said the year was within the range of what was expected, albeit at the upper edge of the range.

“If the acceleration happens and it will be worse, like reaching a global tipping point, that will likely be the worst-case scenario,” Seneviratne said. “But what’s really happening is really bad and it’s having really big impacts now. We’re in the middle of a crisis.”

University of Michigan Dean of Environment Jonathan Overbeck and Berkeley Earth climatologist Zeke Hausfather, neither of whom were involved in the study, said they are still seeing an acceleration. The rate of warming is much higher than the 0.18 degrees Celsius (0.32 Fahrenheit) per decade of warming between 1970 and 2010, Hausfather noted.

Scientists have put forward some explanations for this phenomenon Huge jump in September, which Housefather called “gobsmacking”. Wednesday’s report did not find enough warming for other possible reasons. The report said the reduction in sulfur pollution from shipping – which provided some cooling to the atmosphere – was outweighed last year by carbon particles released into the air from Canadian wildfires.

The report also said that an undersea volcano injected massive amounts of heat-trapping water vapor into the atmosphere, and also spewed cooling particles, with both forces largely canceling each other out.

“The future is in our hands,” said Katherine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech and chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy. We – not physics, but humans – will determine how quickly and by what volume the world will warm.