Ukraine has lost 10 million people since 2001…and will lose many more by 2050

The demographic future looks very bleak for Ukrainians. The country, devastated by Russian bombs for more than two years, faces collapse “Very Dangerous” Its population, warned Ukrainian Social Policy Minister Oksana Zholnovych during a public forum in Kyiv on April 21. Since the war began in February 2022, Ukraine has lost more than four million people. Kyiv Post. According to the United Nations database, the population has decreased from 42 million in early 2022 to 37.9 million today.

This unconscious decline is apparently linked to war. But this phenomenon is deep and old. In December 2001, the Ukrainian Statistical Service counted 48.5 million people. In 1992, the population reached 52 million people. According to projections by the Minister of Social Policy, the population could lose another 10 million people by 2050, dropping to 25.2 million. This is a drop of more than 50% in almost 60 years.

Low birth rates, forced immigration, illegal emigration…

In addition to the still unknown number of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians killed since the beginning of the war, this decline can be explained by several old socio-economic criteria: the death rate exceeds the already low birth rate (1,2). Deterioration in the health of the population, increase in the number of disabled people, high rate of premature mortality and population ageing. In addition, the war has accelerated the massive forced migration of the population, with about 6.3 million people fleeing the country due to war and occupation of part of the country in 2022-2023.

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Security risks associated with the conflict therefore pushed residents to leave or have fewer children. By mining a significant part of the Ukrainian territory (at least 29%), this situation can last for a long time, which will not encourage people to return, or want to have children. This feeling is exacerbated by lack of housing. According to Kyiv School of EconomicsAs of January 2024, the total number of destroyed and damaged houses was over 250,000 buildings, including 222,000 private houses, over 27,000 apartment buildings and 526 shelters.

This included the illegal expulsion of Ukrainian citizens abroad, the movement of 19,500 children from the occupied territories to Russia, and extensive internal displacement of the population. In the latter case, excessive concentration of population in certain regions leads to serious problems in the availability and quality of basic services, including housing, education and medical services.

A grand Ukrainian strategy

To prevent this spectacular fall in population, the Ministry of Social Policy Publish a written strategy. It is intended first “Create the conditions to increase the birth rate”Installation “A favorable environment for families with children”In “Increasing the Economic Autonomy of Families” And inside “Creating favorable conditions for the combination of parental and professional employment”. to “Reduce premature mortality”Ukraine especially wants to develop “Self-Protective Behavioral Skills”improve “General State of Health of the People” And “Enhancing availability and quality of medical care”.

The country also wants to encourage “Return to Ukraine of Ukrainians Living Abroad”By assuring them of solid support “Incentives” come back To finish, Ukraine wants “Attract foreign migrants to meet labor market needs”. The Ukrainian government's strategy also outlines its strategy to reintegrate displaced people into local regional communities and adapt society to population aging.