Ukraine peace summit lacks leverage as Russia and China stay away

But importantly, Russia will not attend (it was not invited after publicly announcing it would not participate), nor will influential countries such as China and Saudi Arabia, calling into question the effectiveness of the summit in creating the foundations for the peace process.

Other countries decided not to send representatives or to send only junior officials to the summit. Brazil, India, South Africa and Turkey – countries that enjoy friendly relations with Russia – have not yet confirmed what delegation they will send to the summit, if any.

The final list of participants will be released on Friday and could change at the last minute amid A report stated that the number of attendees had decreased in recent days.

However, Swiss organizers of the summit said earlier this week that about half of the confirmed participants are from Europe, with the rest from Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East.

Clearly, the absence of Russia and its geopolitical allies from this gathering weakens the scope and potential impact of the summit.

“The Zelensky administration has been working hard for months to attract the broadest possible participation at the highest level in this event. In this regard, the absence of countries such as China or Saudi Arabia – which have influence over Russia – would be a major setback.” Andrius Torsa, Central and Eastern Europe consultant at consultancy Teneo, told CNBC on Tuesday.

Perhaps what is worse for Kiev is that even its strongest ally, the United States, is not sending its head of state, along with President Joe Biden. Choose to attend a fundraiser in California in Hollywood instead of.

White House Vice President Kamala Harris and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan have said they will do so Representing the United States at this event. Zelensky was clearly not impressed, saying Biden would be absent as well It was met with “personal and widespread applause from Putin” in Moscow.

CNBC has contacted the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry for further comment on the summit.

Shelby Majid, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, said Kiev’s frustration was understandable given its diplomatic efforts to gain support and keep Ukraine at the top of the global agenda.

“Despite the tremendous efforts made by Ukraine, including Zelensky’s extensive and enthusiastic international travel, and calls and statements encouraging attendance from all invited countries and organizations, this goal has not been fully achieved,” she added. He said in an analysis this week.

Swiss summit organizers remained optimistic about the summit, although they downplayed what it could achieve, describing it as a “peace conference, not a peace conference” that aims to “inspire a future peace process.”

However, Swiss President Viola Amherd urged as many countries as possible to participate, telling reporters in the Swiss capital Bern on Monday that “the broadest possible participation is important so that we can start a broadly supported process.”

The government also defended the decision not to invite Russia, with Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis saying on Monday that “we were always open to inviting Russia to the conference – but Moscow has made it clear several times that it is not interested in participating.”

The summit is not the first of its kind. Several other lower-level meetings have been held over the past year Ukraine has promoted the 10-point peace plan Calling for the complete withdrawal of Russian forces and the restoration of its territorial integrity, among other conditions.

However, the events had little impact on the battlefield, other than to underscore Ukraine’s need for more weapons from its allies; Fighting remains as intense as ever in the south, east and northeast of the country, where Russia launched a new attack several months ago.

Volodymyr Dubovic, of the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told CNBC that the summit “would not matter much if one actually thought about getting closer to peace.”

“It’s actually not that different from previous similar meetings. The only difference is probably the sheer number of countries that will be represented,” he told CNBC in emailed comments on Wednesday.

“The countries that will be represented at the summit are likely to support the Ukrainian point of view. So, yes, it is an important forum to show that Ukraine is still on the agenda and that it still has a certain high level of support. If that is the main goal, then it will probably “Meets expectations.”

Dubovic denied the absence of countries such as China and Saudi Arabia, saying that their presence in previous similar meetings did not help bring peace closer.

The summit comes at a time when tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain incredibly high.

Moscow announced in September 2022 that four partially occupied Ukrainian regions were now part of the Russian Federation, making any peace talks or political settlement of the conflict more difficult.

It also seems extremely unlikely that Russia will “give up” its territory, or be seen as giving up its territory, despite its illegal territorial seizure.

Although this weekend’s meeting has some value in stimulating “a discussion on the various elements of a negotiated settlement to the conflict at some point in the future,” Teneo’s Torsa noted that he does not expect big things.

He added, “I do not think that this event will have any impact on the course of the war, especially in the near term.”