What to remember from the new IPCC report on solutions to prevent the crisis

After the facts and the consequences, the solutions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the third and final part of its sixth report on climate change on Monday, April 4. This time, the scientists, who have already submitted their papers on the physical evolution of the climate and its effects on human communities and biodiversity, evaluated how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in IPCC texts.

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During the period 2010-2019, this greenhouse gas emissions generated by our daily activities continued to increase. This growth slowed slightly from + 2.3% per year to + 1.3%. To keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, these emissions must be reduced to 27 to 43% by 2030 and 63 to 84% by 2050. Sure, they should peak in three years. “The decisions we make today will ensure a livable future.”Hoesung Lee, head of the UN, commented. “We have the tools and the knowledge to control global warming. “According to him.

Francinefo was able to consult the “Summary for Decision-makers” of this report and provide you with key lessons.

The passive costs are higher than the required investments

IPCC experts point it out first “The overall cost of controlling global warming to +2 degrees Celsius in the 21st century is less than the global economic benefits of reducing global warming.” Of course, the necessary investments will cost less than the economic damage caused by the climate crisis. “This is a very firm decision. Reducing our emissions is a worthwhile investment in the long run.”advanced with franceinfo Céline Guivarch, Director of Research International Research Center for the Environment and Development (Cired)) And co-editor of Group 3 of the IPCC.

Says the IPCC “Prices of many low carbon technologies have continued to fall since 2010”. Experts cite solar power, which has lost 85% of its cost between 2010 and 2019, with wind power (–55%) and lithium-ion batteries (–85%).

A toolbox, sector wise

The report is very clear: all views controlling the temperature to 1.5 ° C or 2 C “Indicates rapid, deep and often immediate greenhouse gas reductions in all sectors”. If the IPCC scientists notice some progress, even the current promises of the states are not being complied with, leading to warming above 1.5 ° C in this century (+ 3.2 C). Priyadarshi Shukla, Vice-Chairman, 3rd Committee, IPCC “Proper Operations, Infrastructure and Technologies” Can “Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 70% by 2050”. To rectify the situation, here are the sector wise evaluated solutions.

Energy production (about 34% of global emissions). Consumption of coal, oil and gas is expected to fall by 95%, 60% and 45% by 2050, respectively, from 2019, which is mainly in line with power generation. One for this “The big change” With “Deployment of Low Emission Sources” Such as air, sun, water or atom. At this point, the IPCC refers to a number of low-carbon technologies “In terms of cost, performance and deployment, it showed many improvements from the previous report”.

Franck Lecocq, co-author of the report and director of Cired, emphasizes the fact that the fossil fuels currently under construction will produce more greenhouse gases than is needed to control global warming: “Achieving these objectives means closing these plants in advance, which is a very strong message. A new construction makes it even more difficult to achieve this objective.” This also means not exploiting all known coal or oil reserves.

Industrial (about 24%). Achieving net zero emissions in this sector a “Challenge”But it is “Possible”, IPCC estimates. Scientists talk about integrated processes “Across the value chain”For “Use materials more efficiently, reuse and recycle and reduce waste”. “These options have the potential to be widely used in industrial practice and require more attention from industrial policy.”Note the authors of the text.

Agriculture, forestry and land use (about 22%). This sector is important because it can participate in capturing carbon emitted by others, beyond its own emissions reductions. Is in addition “For example, country-specific opportunities abound to provide co-benefits that avoid risks by adapting to climate change (such as biodiversity conservation, environmental services and lifestyle).”.

It goes through “Conservation, better management and restoration of other ecosystems such as forests and coastal wetlands, beetlands, savannahs and grasslands”, Sustainable crop and livestock management. Consumers should not forget because switching to plant-rich foods and low-meat diets is listed as a solution to reduce emissions from the sector.

Traffic (about 15%). In this field, France’s leading emitter, the IPCC lists several options: reduction of demand for transport (telephone, less urban expansion), less polluting methods (public transport), active modes (cycling, walking) with investments (lanes, sidewalks), electrification of vehicles (Less pollution than heat in their entire life cycle) and biofuels (the latter even if there are risks of conflict in land use with food). These will have various benefits including mitigation measures “Improving air quality, health, equal access to transportation, reducing traffic congestion and demand for goods”They mention.

Buildings (about 6%). Cities and suburbs offer “Meaningful Opportunities” Reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Should be in it “Reduction or change in energy and material consumption”, “Electrification” Increase the city’s ability to capture and store carbon (for example, with green spaces).

Carbon capture is essential but not enough

To control global warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period, the world needs to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 (the range of warming to 2 degrees Celsius by 2070), the IPCC recalls. To do this, we need to reduce our emissions, “The use of carbon dioxide capture devices to compensate for residual emissions is inevitable”, They wrote. The rest of the emissions come from industries such as agriculture (for example methane emitted by ruminants) or aviation, which are difficult to dispose of.

IPCC provides solutions for the development of natural carbon sinks, thanks to changes in reforestation and soil practices, as well as synthetic solutions for capturing and storing CO2 (not yet matured). “However, this does not mean that we can continue to emit greenhouse gases. If the remaining emissions are low, less negative emissions must be offset.”Céline Guivarch insists.

Emissions (and solutions) are not evenly distributed

“Emissions have increased in most parts of the world, but are evenly distributed”, Recalls the IPCC in this third section. Experts support their reports with this chart of overall emissions from 1850 onwards. Even today, per capita emissions are low in developed countries “Very low” (1.7 tons of CO2 per year) than the world average (6.9 tons). “Globally, 10% of wealthy households have emissions of 36 to 45%”Add authors.

Faced with this observation, IPCC experts emphasize that the solutions to the climate crisis should not be the same. “Individuals with higher socio-economic status contribute proportionately to emissions and have greater reduction potential”, Underline the experts. Overall, they a “Accelerated financial assistance from developed to developing countries is a key tool in measuring mitigation measures and redressing disparities.” And face “Climate change to its economic impact on developing countries”.

Funding is very low

Significant funding is needed to implement this change. Today, the IPCC states, “Private and public funds will always be more than adapting toward fossil fuels and mitigating climate change”. According to scientists’ calculations, there should be an annual fund for the decade 2020 “Three to six times higher than current levels” To fulfill the objectives of the Paris Agreement. “Despite the speed and commitment, real progress has been slow.”Raphaël Jachnik, co-author of the report and political analyst at the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) notes.