Why the conflict in Sudan matters to the rest of the world

fighting in Sudan Between forces loyal to two top generals has put that country in danger of collapse and could have consequences far beyond its borders.

Both sides have tens of thousands of fighters, foreign backers, mineral wealth, and other resources that could protect them from sanctions. It is a recipe for the kind of protracted conflict that has ravaged other countries in the Middle East and Africa, from Lebanon and Syria to Libya and Ethiopia.

The fighting, which began as Sudan attempted to transition to democracy, has already killed hundreds of people and left millions trapped in urban areas, hiding from gunfire, explosions and looting.

A look at what is happening and its impact outside Sudan.

Who is fighting?

Major General Abdel Fattah Burhan, commander of the armed forces, and Major General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commander of a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces that emerged from the notorious Janjaweed militias in Darfur, are seeking to take over Sudan.. This comes two years after they staged a joint military coup and derailed the transition to democracy that began after protesters in 2019 helped overthrow President Omar al-Bashir. In recent months, negotiations have been under way for a return to democratic transition.

The victor of the latest fighting will likely be the next president of Sudan, with the loser facing exile, arrest or death. A protracted civil war or the division of the Arab and African country into competing fiefdoms is also possible.

Alex de Waal, a Sudan expert at Tufts University, wrote in a note to colleagues this week that the conflict should be seen as “the first round of a civil war.”

“Unless it is quickly ended, the conflict will become a multi-level game with certain regional and international actors pursuing their own interests, using money, weapons supplies and perhaps their own forces or proxies,” he wrote.

What does the fighting mean for Sudan’s neighbors?

Sudan is the third largest country in Africa by area and straddles the Nile River. It hardly shares its waters with two regional heavyweights like Egypt and Ethiopia. Egypt relies on the Nile River to support its population of more than 100 million, and Ethiopia is building a massive dam upstream. This alarmed Cairo and Khartoum.

Egypt has close relations with the Sudanese army, which it considers an ally against Ethiopia. Cairo has reached out to both sides in Sudan to push for a cease-fire, but is unlikely to stand idly by if the army faces defeat.

Sudan is bordered by five other countries, Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, Eritrea and South Sudan, which separated in 2011 and acquired 75% of Khartoum’s oil resources. Almost all of them are mired in their own internal conflicts, with various rebel groups operating along the porous border.

“What happens in Sudan will not stay in Sudan,” said Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group. Chad and South Sudan appear to be immediately at risk of potential fallout. But the longer (the fighting) goes on, the greater the likelihood of a major outside intervention.”

What are the external authorities of concern to Sudan?

Arab Gulf states have looked to the Horn of Africa in recent years as they seek to project power across the region.

The United Arab Emirates, a rising military power, has expanded its presence Across the Middle East and East Africa, it has close ties to the Rapid Support Forces, which have sent thousands of fighters to aid the UAE and Saudi Arabia in their war against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Russia, meanwhile, has long had plans to build a naval base capable of hosting up to 300 soldiers and four ships at Port Sudan, on an important Red Sea trade route for energy shipments to Europe.

The Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary group with close ties to the Kremlin, has made inroads across Africa in recent years. It has been operating in Sudan since 2017. The United States and the European Union Sanctions imposed on two gold mining companies linked to Wagner in Sudan accused of smuggling.

What is the role played by Western countries?

Sudan became an international pariah when it hosted Osama bin Laden and other militants in the 1990s, when al-Bashir empowered a hardline Islamist government.

Its isolation was deepened by conflict in the western region of Darfur in the 2000s, when Sudanese forces and the Janjaweed were accused of atrocities while suppressing a local rebellion. The International Criminal Court eventually charged al-Bashir with genocide.

The United States removed Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism After the government in Khartoum agreed to establish relations with Israel in 2020.

But billions of dollars in loans and aid were put on hold after the 2021 military coup. That, combined with the war in Ukraine and global inflation, sent the economy crashing..

Can outside powers do anything to stop the fighting?

Sudan’s economic problems appear to provide an opportunity for Western countries to use economic sanctions to pressure both sides to step down.

But in Sudan, as in other resource-rich African nations, armed groups have long enriched themselves through the shadowy trade in rare minerals and other natural resources.

Dagalo, a camel herder once from Darfur, has large livestock holdings and gold mining operations. He is also believed to have been well paid by the Gulf states for his RSF service in Yemen fighting Iran-allied rebels.

The army controls much of the economy, and it can also rely on businessmen in Khartoum and along the banks of the Nile who became rich during Bashir’s long rule and who view the RSF as gruff warriors from the hinterland.

“Controlling the political money will be no less decisive than the battlefield,” de Waal said. “(The army) will want to control the gold mines and smuggling routes. The RSF will want to cut off major transport routes including the road from Port Sudan to Khartoum.”

Meanwhile, the sheer number of potential mediators — including the United States, the United Nations, the European Union, Egypt, the Gulf states, the African Union, and the eight-nation East African bloc known as the IGAD — could make any peace effort more complex than the war itself.

“Outside brokers risk becoming a traffic jam in the absence of a policeman,” de Waal said.

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Associated Press writers Jon Gambrell in Dubai, UAE, Rodney Muhumosa in Kampala, Uganda, and Joseph Krause in Ottawa, Ontario, contributed to this.