Women's March Madness bracket questions for selection on Sunday

After one of the most exciting and unpredictable women's college basketball seasons in recent memory, Selection Sunday has arrived.

It's been an incredible journey, from Caitlin Clark's record-breaking season to another unbeaten run by South Carolina, from the ultra-competitive race in the Pac-12's final season to all the dynamic freshmen lighting up stadiums across the country.

Evaluating schedules, quality wins, questionable losses, NET rankings, and all the notes from the games have filled the land of Bracketology over the past six weeks. Now is the time for the NCAA Women's Tournament Selection Committee to take center stage and provide the final 68-team field.

As the committee continues to meet in Indianapolis ahead of Sunday's special selection (8 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN App), some decisions and team assignments are clear. No one is going to spend a lot of time on the No. 1 overall seed. The Gamecocks were done with that weeks ago. Many other aspects of Sagittarius will not be easy to identify.

What are the biggest questions facing the selection committee? Here's a look at the most pressing debates facing the committee's 12 members.

What is the impact of Elizabeth Keightley's injury?

Having seen how Virginia Tech played down the stretch in the regular season finale (upset by Virginia) and the ACC Tournament (a blowout loss to Notre Dame in the semifinals), it's clear that the Hokies are greatly diminished without their star center. The three-time ACC Player of the Year suffered a knee injury against the Cavaliers and has not played since, nor did he make the ACC Tournament. Virginia Tech has not disclosed Keightley's status, including – as far as we know – the selection committee. It is still described as daily.

The Committee has no choice but to take this seriously.

The philosophy on injuries is that only a team's complete resume will impact its inclusion in the NCAA Tournament, but a player's availability or lack thereof can impact seeding. The Hokies were in position to be a top-16 team and therefore host first- and second-round games. If the committee knew for certain that Kitley would not play, Virginia Tech's status as host could be in jeopardy.

When it comes to rankings, there isn't much precedent for late-season injuries to stars. In 1998, Stanford lost Vanessa Nygard to a torn ACL in the final game of the regular season, then lost Kristin Voelkel four days later to the same injury. In that very different era, the Cardinal still earned a No. 1 seed. In the end, they became the first and only seed to lose to No. 16, falling to Harvard.

Last year is the closest and most recent comparison to Keightley's situation. Notre Dame lost star Olivia Miles in the regular season finale to a knee injury. The Irish were in a similar spot as hockey, hoping to host NCAA tournament games. But Notre Dame's position as a top-16 seed has been more tenuous than Virginia Tech's this year. Miles remained listed as daily until the start of the NCAA Tournament. The Irish earned a No. 3 seed and won two games in South Bend to reach the Sweet 16.

A week before the end of this regular season, Virginia Tech was in contention for the No. 1 seed if the Hokies had a strong finish. That chase ended in a decisive loss to Notre Dame on February 29. The hockey position continued to decline based on their play, falling from the No. 2 seed to No. 4. It should be where they live.

Stanford, USC, or Texas for the top spot?

The Cardinals have a regular season championship in the nation's top-ranked conference. USC won the Pac-12 Tournament title. Texas came just short of first place in the regular season race but won the championship in the Big 12, the second-highest-ranked league in the country. The Longhorns have the highest NET rating of the three. The Trojans have the most wins in the NET's top 25. Stanford University has the highest number of top 50 finishes.

It's very close between these three teams, but there are only two teams remaining in first place after South Carolina and Iowa. Someone has to be the No. 2 seed.

The likely reason in Texas is that the team's odd exit is due to the strength of the non-conference schedule. The high value placed on how a team is scheduled has been a consistent mark of the NCAA Tournament selection committee over the past few seasons, even as members change from year to year. The Longhorns are ranked 159th in the non-conference schedule. USC is ranked 93rd, Stanford 46th. While Texas has played — and won convincingly — UConn and Arizona, every other non-conference game has been against teams outside the top 100.

Will Gonzaga retain a spot in the top 16?

The Bulldogs were a lock to host NCAA Tournament games prior to the WCC Tournament. They won all of their conference games by an average of 30.7 points during the regular season. Gonzaga beat its finals opponent, Portland, by 50 points just two weeks ago.

But the Flyers stunned the Zags in the NCAA title game for the second year in a row, and now Gonzaga is resigned to an anxious Sunday. Bracketology kept the Bulldogs in the top 16 after the loss. With Oklahoma and Kansas State losing in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals, and Syracuse and the Utah Utes getting eliminated early in their tournaments, there was no team to step up and take Gonzaga's place.

However, the committee could give preference among 16 teams to the Sooners, who won the Big 12 regular-season title, or the Wildcats, who beat Texas and Iowa.

It should be noted that Oklahoma cannot host even if the Sooners fall in the top 16. The Big 12 Gymnastics Championships are the same weekend as the first and second rounds of the NCAA Championships and are held at the Lloyd Noble Center, the home arena of Sooner basketball. That means the next highest seed in Oklahoma's half of the bracket will have the option to host.

In this case, the No. 5 seed (with Oklahoma as No. 4) in that region would host the games.

Will 17-15 Arizona make it to the field?

The Wildcats were the “last team” in ESPN's 68-team field for more than a week. It's not unprecedented for a team approaching the .500 mark to hit the field. But it's not common either. Oklahoma went 16-14 in 2018. Auburn was 17-14 when the Tigers earned the No. 11 seed in 2017.

The Wildcats have a lot going for them, including the strength of the conference (the Pac-12 is No. 1 in the gridiron) and how they finished heading into Selection Sunday (a late-season win over Stanford and two competitive losses to USC). They ranked second in strength of schedule and 35th on the network.

The overall record works against them, as does a 2-10 mark against the top 25 teams in the NET and a 7-15 record against the top 100 teams. However, those two wins in the Top 25 are more than other bubble teams like Mississippi State and Penn State. They both finished the season poorly as well. Arizona had a 19-point win in its last game against Washington State, another bubble team.

When it comes to the Wildcats, there is so much contradictory data that the panelists will likely debate it until the end.