French elections: The far right leads in the first round, in a blow to Macron, according to expectations

CNN
—

The far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, advanced in the first round of elections France Initial projections showed that Sunday’s parliamentary elections would bring her closer to power than ever before.

After an unusually high turnout, the National Front bloc topped with 34% of the vote, while the leftist New Popular Front coalition came in second place with 28.1%, and President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition fell to third place with 20.3%, according to preliminary estimates by the Institute. Ipsos.

While the National Rally party appears on track to win the most seats in the National Assembly, it may fall short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, suggesting that France could be heading toward a hung parliament and more political uncertainty.

Expectations indicate that after the second round of voting next Sunday, the National Front will win between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat House of Representatives – a staggering increase compared to its 88 seats in the outgoing Parliament. The National League was expected to gain between 125 and 165 seats, with the group falling by between 70 and 100 seats.

The election, called by Macron after his party suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of the National Rally in European Parliament elections earlier this month, could see him serve out the remaining three years of his presidential term in an awkward partnership with a prime minister from an opposition party.

Celebrations erupted in the northern town of Henin-Beaumont when the results were announced – but Marine Le Pen was quick to stress that next Sunday’s vote will be decisive.

“Democracy has spoken, and the French people have put the National Rally and its allies first – practically wiping out the Macronite bloc,” she told a cheering crowd, adding: “Nothing has been won – and the second round will take place.” decisive.”

In a speech at the National Front headquarters in Paris, Jordan Bardella, the party’s 28-year-old leader who would become prime minister, echoed Le Pen’s message.

Bardella said, “The vote that will take place next Sunday is one of the most decisive elections in the entire history of the Fifth Republic.”

In upbeat speeches before the first round, Bardella said he would reject a minority government, as the National Rally would need the votes of allies to pass laws. If the National Rally fails to secure an absolute majority and Bardella stays true to his word, Macron may then have to look for a far-left prime minister, or elsewhere entirely, to form a technocratic government.

With an unprecedented number of seats going to a three-way runoff, a week of political negotiations will now begin, as centrist and left-wing parties decide whether or not to step aside for individual seats to prevent the nationalist, anti-immigration National Front — long a pariah in French politics — from winning a majority.

When the National Rally — under its former name, the National Front — performed strongly in the first round of votes in the past, left-wing and centrist parties have previously united to prevent them from taking office, under a principle known as “encirclement.”

After Jean-Marie Le Pen — Marine’s father and leader of the National Front for decades — unexpectedly defeated Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin in the 2002 presidential election, the Socialists threw their weight behind center-right candidate Jacques Chirac, turning him in. Landslide in the second round.

In an attempt to deprive the National Front of a majority, the National Front – the leftist coalition formed earlier this month – promised that it would withdraw all of its candidates who came in third place in the first round.

“Our instructions are clear – no more vote, no more seat for the National Rally,” Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the France Insoumise party – the largest party in the Free France party – told supporters on Sunday.

“We have a long week ahead of us, and each person will make their own decision based on their conscience, and this decision will determine, in the long run, the future of our country and the fate of each one of us,” Mélenchon added.

Marine Tondillier, leader of the Green Party – a more moderate part of the National Labor Party – made a personal call for Macron to step down in certain seats to deprive the National Front of a majority.

“We are counting on you: Drop out if you finish third in a three-way race, and if you don’t make it to the runoff, call on your supporters to vote for a candidate who supports Republican values,” she said.

Macron’s allies have also called on their supporters to prevent the far right from taking power, but have warned against giving their votes to the controversial Mélenchon.

Gabriel Attal, Macron’s protégé and outgoing prime minister, urged voters to prevent the National Front from winning a majority, but said Mélenchon’s France Unbendable party “prevents a credible alternative” to a far-right government.

“Votes should not be cast for National Rally candidates, but also for France Unbowed candidates, with whom we disagree on fundamental principles,” said former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, another Macron ally.

It’s not clear whether tactical voting can prevent the FN from winning a majority. In Sunday’s vote, the FN gained support in places that would have been unimaginable until recently. In the 20th constituency of the Nord region, an industrial stronghold, Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel was defeated in the first round by a FN candidate with no previous political experience. The seat has been held by the Communists since 1962.

Macron’s decision to call early elections – the first in France since 1997 – surprised the country and even his closest allies. Sunday’s vote was held three years earlier than necessary and just three weeks after Macron’s Ennahda party was defeated by the National Front in the European Parliament elections.

Macron has pledged to serve out the remainder of his final presidential term, which runs until 2027, but now faces the prospect of having to appoint a prime minister from an opposition party – a rare arrangement known as “cohabitation”.

The French government has little trouble passing laws when the president and the majority in parliament belong to the same party. When they don’t, things can grind to a halt. While the president sets the country’s foreign, European and defense policy, the parliamentary majority is responsible for passing domestic laws, such as pensions and taxes.

But these powers can overlap, potentially pushing France into a constitutional crisis. For example, Bardella has ruled out sending troops to help Ukraine resist a Russian invasion—an idea floated by Macron—and said he would not allow Kiev to use French military equipment to strike targets inside Russia. It is unclear whose will would prevail in disputes like these, where the line between domestic and foreign policy is blurred.

A far-right government could trigger a financial and constitutional crisis. The National Front has made generous spending pledges — from rolling back Macron’s pension reforms to cutting taxes on fuel, gas and electricity — at a time when Brussels could slash France’s budget savagely.

With one of the highest deficit levels in the eurozone, France may need to embark on a period of austerity to avoid falling foul of the European Commission’s new fiscal rules. But if the National Front’s spending plans are implemented, it could send France’s deficit skyrocketing – a prospect that has spooked bond markets and led to warnings of a financial crisis like that of Liz Truss, referring to the prime minister. The shortest service in British history.

In a brief statement on Sunday evening, Macron said the high turnout showed “the desire of French voters to clarify the political situation” and called on his supporters to rally for the second round.

“In the face of the National Rally, it is time for a broad, clear Democratic and Republican mobilization for the second round,” he said.