For most of the fantasy football season, Bijan Robinson has been an underwhelming player. He’s associated with a maddening offense, a mercurial coach and an erratic role.
But Robinson’s rampage since Week 12 can’t be ignored. He’s starting to look like a league winner.
Robinson was the dominant fantasy player in the early window Sunday, rolling in a total of 123 yards and two touchdowns in a 24-15 win over New Orleans. Robinson had one touchdown from the ground, one through the air, and was successful on a number of Atlanta offensive sets. Sometimes the Falcons were under center, sometimes at rifle or pistol. The offensive line pushed New Orleans forward, and when Robinson has enough time to get a push and choose his path, exciting things happen.
Take a look at Robinson’s tape, and see what you make of it. Robinson was unaffected on his first down, a combination of dynamic blocking and Robinson’s world-class rushing. The second score was a beautifully timed layup from rookie midfielder Desmond Ridder, which turned into game-winning points.
Robinson posted a lot of strong fantasy games prior to this week, but we’re still waiting for that monster performance. His best half-point rating in PPR through the first 10 weeks was two RB8 performances in the first two weeks. Sunday’s 25.8 points have him as the RB3 in Yahoo’s scoring as we go to press, trailing only Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams on the week.
Robinson was a popular name mentioned in starting bench discussions on Sunday. This may have come to an end now. The Falcons are leaning on him in the stretch run, and the remaining schedule looks interesting. Four of Robinson’s next five opponents — the Jets, Panthers, Colts and Bears — rank in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The only tough mark on the schedule is a Week 14 home date against Tampa Bay — and the Buccaneers couldn’t keep Jonathan Taylor down on Sunday.
It’s hard to trust other hawks
I hope I can unequivocally support the rest of Atlanta’s offense. It’s still a successful group. Drake London was an impressive 5-91-0 on the afternoon, racking up seven goals. That’s 33% of the game’s total passes here, but it’s a small pie — the Falcons attempted just 21 passes. Desmond Rader threw a couple of bad picks, and I get the idea that Atlanta’s coaches view Rader as a quarterback who needs to be managed carefully.
With London and Robinson combining for 13 goals, there was little room for Atalanta’s other players. Kyle Pitts caught both of his targets for 22 yards. The Falcons haven’t opened him up all year. It is no longer a fancy consideration in most pools.
Missed opportunities for the Saints
The Saints’ offense had no trouble moving the ball (444 yards, 22 first downs), but left a bunch of points on the field and failed to reach the end zone. Injuries didn’t help. Chris Olave (7-114-0, nine goals) was dominating the game before a concussion in the third quarter ended his day. Rashid Shahid (2-9-0, five goals) suffered a hamstring injury in the second quarter and also did not return.
Alvin Kamara is stuck for three touchdowns, but at least volume has carried him to an acceptable fantasy score (15-69 rushing, 4-50 receiving). Derek Carr killed one drive with a pick-6, and Taysom Hill lost a fumble.
The Falcons and Saints are now tied for the top spot in the NFC South, with both teams at 5-6. Although the Buccaneers still have a chance, just a rematch, it will likely be a rematch between New Orleans and Atlanta in Week 18 for the division title, perhaps even being tucked into the evening slot.
Maybe watching Arthur Smith’s coach in prime time isn’t your idea of a party. But Bijan Robinson is ready to take a sad song and make it better.
Speed tour
• Posting games during Thanksgiving week is a double-edged sword. It’s a good idea to have six independent matches during the week; We can focus more on more players, more teams, and more situations. It’s perfect for exploring. But with the Lions, Cowboys, Niners and Dolphins all off the roster before the weekend, the early window on Sunday felt lean, an Italian grinder without the meat.
• For weeks, Rashi Rice was the favorite in Kansas City. Sunday they finally gave him size and a predictable streak followed — 8-107-1 on 10 targets. Andy Red Rice was not in a hurry, but he couldn’t ignore this kind of production. Rice is an easy start to the rest of the season.
• We don’t need Aidan O’Connell to be great, we just need him to be good enough to support the three playable Raiders of Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. AOC wasn’t as strong against the Chiefs, but he got off to his best start of the year on Sunday. We can trust the Vegas triplets.
• It is difficult to know what to do with players in cases of mysterious injury. Cooper Kupp started on Sunday, but he likely wasn’t anywhere near full health. Kyren Williams returns after an injury that lasted several weeks. The result: Williams was running wild like a pro, while Cobb was basically a decoy. There’s a lot of guesswork involved in the games we play. Royce Freeman eventually gets his work done in the backfield as well, in the blowout, but I expect Williams to have a dominant share of the workload in close games.
• James Conner is the difference in Arizona but with Kyler Murray running hard — and even Clayton Toone getting some quick chances at times — the goal line is flying out the window. And it’s not as if the Cardinals often play with a preferred game scenario; They are 2-10 for a reason. The defense was embarrassed by the regular Rams team on Sunday. If you have championship dreams, you need a better start than Conner.
• The Browns and Broncos are essentially the same team – very good defense, reliable skill talent, and a quarterback hide game. There’s not a seamless overlap between the players — Russell Wilson is better than the rest of Cleveland’s quarterbacks, and the Browns’ defense is better than Denver’s — but the framework is the same.
Most AFC contenders would like to see either team make the playoffs, if that keeps the Bills out. Buffalo now sits at 6-6, despite a -plus101 point differential. I realize it’s misleading to say this, but Buffalo is no more than 10 plays away from going undefeated. Unfortunately, the Bills are now a long way from reaching the AFC Championship.
• Keenan Allen has the perfect setup — he’s the only option the Chargers trust, but his wins average is so modest, defenses don’t feel obligated to throw every resource into stopping him. Fantasy managers love the 14-106-0 line Allen posted Sunday. The Ravens are seeing 106 yards on 16 targets — a modest average of 6.63 per attempt — and might conclude, “This doesn’t beat us.” The Chargers finished with a measly 10 points.
• Derrick Henry needed two touchdown runs to make the most of 18 carries for 76 yards against Carolina, the worst team in football. The Giants don’t play another bad team the rest of the year: Colts, Dolphins, Texans, Seahawks, Texans, Jaguars. Henry clearly has few receiving roles and can get lost in the script of the game when Tennessee falls behind. He’s not an automatic fantasy playoff pick.
• Pat Freiermuth played for the Bengals for three hours, a 9-120-0 beauty that stands out in a variety of ways. But usually everyone in Pittsburgh’s passing game is fighting for one Kenny Pickett pass, and on this Sunday, Pickett didn’t throw one. Pittsburgh’s current scheme will never change – let’s try to keep Pickett from losing the game, let’s control the clock with good running backs, and let’s see if TJ Watt and the defense can win the game for us. There is no shortage of candidates, but perhaps this will be the time when Mike Tomlin finally wins the Coach of the Year award.
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