VANCOWER – Variations involving the COVID-19 cases in British Columbia can be seen to continue to rise until the end of May, a mathematical modeling expert said, but stronger controls could soon improve the situation.
Jens von Bergman said that based on current vaccine predictions, the number of new variant cases should climb within the next month, while the original strains involved are already flat when new regulations are introduced.
He said that as soon as the effectiveness of the latest public health regulations for indoor diet and group exercise is known, those measures could increase that timeframe by a week or two.
However, von Bergman warned that data from other investigators could have previously been admitted to the hospital, prompting authorities to introduce drastic measures in the interim.
While initial action on prevention is very important, the province has often taken a “wait and see” approach, he said.
BC to expedite temporary workplace closures when there is an exchange between three or more employees. A new order was announced on Thursday as it recorded 1,293 new positive cases daily.
The province reported 1,262 new cases on Friday, the second highest daily total since the previous day.
There are 9,574 active cases, including 332 in hospital and 102 in intensive care.
Two more died of Kovit-19 disease, numbering 1,495 BC.
“It motivates us in a way that can easily lead things astray,” Van Bergman said.
“This kind of waiting means that cases may grow more and more.”
His predictions will come into effect by May 15, based on the assumption that about 30 percent of British Columbians will have the first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine.
The province has delivered one million doses of the vaccine on Friday to date, mostly the first dose.
Van Bergman has a false story, and the types of infections “modify” the original strain cases, in fact they occur with them.
“Actually we have to think of these as two separate infections coming together,” he said.
The Ministry of Health did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Dean Carlon, a physics professor at the University of Victoria who analyzed COVID-19 models last year, said the so-called “race” between vaccines and variants is over.
These varieties won when they began to dominate before vaccines became widespread, he said.
He said it was time to focus on reducing transmission in parallel with increasing vaccines.
“Clearly, we still want to push for vaccines as much as possible, but we need to help a lot by reducing those vaccines to individual behavior and transmission,” he said.
Carlon said he believes the current restrictions will reduce the growth rate by two to four percent.
“None of them are really a good effect. This curve is flat and it is best to have a series of infections a day,” he said.
His charts show that a four per cent decline will see stagnation in new cases and hospitals, while a two per cent decline will see both continue to rise by the end of May.
The vaccine program has a positive impact and is a factor in that equation. Without this, he said, he hopes the virus will spread two percent faster a day.
“The coming months will be challenging not only for Kim, but for all five provinces from BC to Quebec,” he said.
Vaccines provide a ray of hope, but health controls must be maintained to achieve this wave, he said.
“It’s not easy.”
This report of the Canadian edition was first published on April 9, 2021.