How will the Phillies reshape the roster for 2024? Key questions about Nola, Hoskins, Harper and more

PHILADELPHIA – They made sure to savor every moment of October, no matter how small, which is why Aaron Nola tipped his hat when he could and why Rhys Hoskins went straight from the airport to Citizens Bank Park to watch Game 7 from the dugout. But at 11:22 PM ET, Hoskins sat alone and blew a bubble while the Diamondbacks danced on the turf. Nola retreated to the clubhouse where she said goodbye to her teammates.

The shocking end to this Phillies season has accelerated questions about the club’s longest-tenured players. What the Phillies do with Nola, specifically, is a turning point for the remainder of this season.

“I definitely hope to come back,” Nola said Tuesday night. “But I don’t know what the future holds yet.”

Nola will test the free-agent market and, in all likelihood, will find strong interest. He’s a rookie who makes every start in an era where teams don’t have enough solid pitchers. The Phillies traded offers with Nola’s camp last spring, but neither side showed much initiative to close a wide gap. Market forces will add urgency. The Cardinals and Braves could be among Nola’s top suitors.

The Phillies may not want to pay a starter $30 million a year into his 30s, but that decision requires a separate — and not obvious — solution to replace 200 innings.

Nola’s decision may be the toughest test for Dave Dombrowski in his time as the Phillies’ president of baseball operations. Even if the 2024 Phillies’ version resembles the 2023 version, Dombrowski has more to consider than Nola as he reshapes the roster.

1. If Aaron Nola walks, what’s the plan?

All indications are that the Phillies will try to re-sign Nola, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them rotate if other teams put a higher price on him than they do. Even if they think Mick Appel, one of the club’s top prospects, could make his debut sometime in 2024, they know he won’t replace Nola’s 193 2/3 innings. Senior prospect Andrew Painter will miss 2024 as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Griff McGarry, another pitching prospect, will incorporate big mechanical changes as the Phillies try to get him into the strike zone more. He has been described as a future savior.

So internal solutions do not exist. If the Phillies refuse to pay Nola big money, they probably won’t do it for someone like Blake Snell. The free agent draft market is not deep.

But there may be trades to follow. Milwaukee’s Corbin Burns is a free agent after the 2024 season, and the Brewers are looking to re-sign him. For that reason, they could look this winter to flip Burns, 29, to a team that can negotiate a long-term extension. The Rays are expected to float Tyler Glasnow, who will be in the final year of a two-year, $30.35 million deal, in trade talks. Glasnow, 30, is not a picture of toughness. He pitched a career-high 120 innings last season. But it is effective when healthy.

Although NOLA is not without flaws, potential solutions are full of pitfalls. Perhaps the Game 7 sting will prompt Dombrowski (and ownership) to be more aggressive in retaining Nola.

2. Where will Bryce Harper play in 2024?

When Harper went to the Phillies in April with his idea of ​​learning first base, he did so knowing there would be ramifications after 2023.

“If I can give them what they want from first base, right field, or whatever — not just this year, but going forward — that gives us a chance,” Harper said in April. “Whatever. Whatever they want. It gives them the choice to do it.”

Even if the Phillies retain Haskins on a short-term deal, it’s unlikely he’ll be an everyday first baseman in the first year after ACL surgery. If the Phillies re-sign Hoskins, Harper said before the National League Championship Series, he expects to return to the field “in some capacity.” Harper will be medically cleared to do so through spring training.

Harper has enjoyed his time at first base and playing in the dirt has kept him busy. He made mistakes, but some of them were due to lack of experience. He looks like someone who can play the position and play it well.

“I don’t mind giving them the option, even if (Reece) comes back, if Reece needs a day off,” Harper said last week. “Give them the option to put me at first base and they’ll know, ‘Hey, we can put him there anytime and he’ll be fine.’”

Hoskins is interested in returning. The Phillies know that. The question is whether they can fit a group of corner outfielders, first basemen and designated hitter types on the same roster. Perhaps Harper will split his time in the infield and outfield while Hoskins does it half as a first baseman and half as a DH. This would force Kyle Schwarber to participate in 70 or so games as a left fielder.

There won’t be a lot of positional flexibility. But in the NLCS, the Phillies were reminded again how much they miss Hoskins’ combination of right-handed power and patience.

3. What does the stadium look like?

Maybe the Phillies will re-sign Hoskins and that would mean Harper playing 80 games in the outfield. Will the Phillies keep Nick Castellanos in right and have Harper relearn left field? He hasn’t played a role there since 2014. But if he does, is there enough room for both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas on the roster? Rojas is an elite defender whose bat needs work. But the Phillies have seen enough flashes to believe he has what it takes to be a valuable everyday player. Marsh has shown improvement in several areas — power, pitching discipline, hitting against lefties — and looks like someone who should be playing every day.

All of this makes Castellanos an interesting character this winter. He owes $60 million over three years. It’s an almost untradeable contract although 2023 has been a rebound season for Castellanos. The Phillies could pursue a trade involving a bad contract to another team that would fit the roster better. If the Phillies believe Arizona exploited a weakness in free-swinging routes, no one embodies that like Castellanos. The Phillies could look to strike a better balance between aggressive and patient hitters in their lineup. Flipping Castellanos for now will allow Harper to return to a full-time spot in right field.

But that is easier said than done. It may not be realistic.

4. Who will reconcile with Taijuan Walker?

As some Phillies players and coaches milled around the clubhouse after midnight Tuesday, Walker leaned against his locker and sipped a drink. One time Nola came and sat with him. They talked.

Walker, for most of the postseason, stood on the top step of the dugout. He cheered for his teammates, lived and died every moment. He didn’t throw the ball. Then, at 2:04 a.m. on Wednesday, chirp: “Disrespect is at an all-time high #nextyear,” and he later liked a tweet from a fan that said: “Disrespect from your manager. He had no trust in you, that was a joke and his game decision cost the Phillies the series. Remember that !

It’s a weird dynamic. The Phillies liked Walker enough last winter to pay him $72 million over four years. They went 21-10 in games he started during the season. He was an important part of the Phillies winning 90 games.

But the club didn’t trust him in the postseason. He was seen as merely an emergency option for extra roles. So what now? Walker will return as the starter in the middle of the rotation. Will these difficult feelings lead to problems in the future?

Walker, Rangers’ Suarez and Christopher Sanchez form a solid full-back for the rotation. The Phillies hope the trio will make 75 starts in 2024. If Nola walks, the burden on those three pitchers could be even greater. That’s why someone from the Phillies will have to give Walker some real answers this winter. They need him in 2024.

(Top photo by Aaron Nola: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)