In 2024, Donald Trump will risk his political future

United States – It's only been a week this year, but it's already been talked about many times. As the Supreme Court said it would take up his case, his successor and future rival accused him of using “Nazi rhetoric” or that he himself had already held a meeting. And you're not done hearing Donald Trump's name in 2024. Because in the coming months, the billionaire is gambling his political future. come back The White House and several legal actions could derail his ambitions.

A deliberate provocateur, spreader of disinformation and conspiracies… As a presidential candidate, Donald Trump hasn't changed his recipe. And it works with Republican voters: He crushes the race for the party primary.

As you can see in the map below from the FiveThirtyEight site, he has a nearly 50-point lead over his two main rivals, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

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Polls for the national Republican primaries.

Its predominance in individual states is somewhat less, although it is strongly dominant. In Iowa, the first caucus on January 15 that will set the tone for the next six months, the former president collected 50% of the vote intentions against 18.4% for second-place Ron DeSantis. In New Hampshire, the second state to vote on January 23, 20 points separate Trump from Nikki Haley.

Five Thirty Eight screenshot

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Voting for the first Republican caucus in Iowa.

Five Thirty Eight screenshot

Voting for the New Hampshire primary.

So it looks like Donald Trump is very well on his way to securing his party's nomination, just like in 2016 and 2020. What about the November general election against the Democratic nominee, which, surprisingly, should be Joe Biden? Polls are mostly in his favor, though only a few points separate the two candidates for the Oval Office.

Tests abound

However, the real estate mogul has bigger stones in his shoes. Donald Trump has been indicted in several cases, including two at the federal level. So the news will be marked by his tests, the first of which is scheduled to open on January 16. It was an appellate hearing in a defamation case in which journalist E. Jean Carroll indicted him and Trump was fined heavily in May.

Four criminal cases have also been filed against the billionaire. The trial for his involvement in the January 6, 2021 events in Washington is scheduled to begin on March 4, the day before Super Tuesday (the date most states hold their primaries). He is expected to face justice again on March 25 in connection with illegal payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election campaign.

It is set to begin on May 20 in classified documents found at his home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. The former president is also being sued for attempting to alter the results of the 2020 election in Georgia. The trial date is yet to be set. At the same time, the verdict of a fraud trial in New York State in which he was accused of inflating his wealth to obtain favorable loans.

A punishment is dangerous

The announced dates are not set in stone. Trump is trying by all means to postpone the deadline after the election, because he knows that if the charges do not have any effect on his popularity, on the contrary, the former president may face a criminal conviction and, even more, a federal case. with love

However, this is what many polling companies have shown that have questioned voters about the impact of the sentence on the presidential election. If Trump currently leads Biden by 4 points (47 vs. 43% of the vote), he would lose by a small margin against the outgoing president at the time of impeachment, the published study concluded, for example. The Wall Street Journal In early December.

What was the end of his political career? With Trump, it's hard to believe. He has already proven that he can bounce back from setbacks and never let himself be defeated. His base also showed that they will support him no matter what. Regardless of the outcome of the election or its trials, the Phoenix can still rise from the ashes.

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