- Written by Lise Doucet
- Chief international correspondent
It seems that the final round of the most dangerous competition in the region is over for now.
Israel has not yet officially acknowledged that the attack that occurred in Iran in the early hours of Friday morning was its doing.
At the same time, Iran's military and political leaders downplayed, dismissed, and even mocked the possibility of anything of consequence happening at all.
Accounts about the type of weapons deployed on Friday and the extent of the damage they sustained remain conflicting and incomplete.
American officials are talking about a missile strike, but Iranian officials say that the attacks, which occurred in the central province of Isfahan and northwest of Tabriz, were caused by the explosion of small drones.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian confirmed to the semi-official Tasnim news agency that “the small planes that were shot down did not cause any damage or injuries.”
But these simple quadcopters are Israel's calling card, as it has deployed them repeatedly during its years of secret operations inside Iran.
This time their main target was the central province of Isfahan, famous for its amazing Islamic heritage.
But recently, the province has become more famous for the Natanz nuclear facility, the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center and a major air base, which was used during Iran's attack on Israel on April 14.
It is also an industrial stronghold that includes factories that produce drones and ballistic missiles that hundreds launched toward Israel last Sunday.
So it appears that this limited operation carried a strong warning – that Israel possesses the intelligence and assets necessary to strike at Iran's beating heart at will.
It is a message so urgent that Israel was careful to send it before the start of Passover, rather than after, as Israel observers widely expected.
US officials also noted that Israel targeted sites such as Iran's air defense radar system, which protects Natanz. There is still no confirmed account of its success.
So this attack might also be just an opening shot. But for now, it was an unintended gift on his 85th birthday to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Israel's official silence has given vital political space to the final decision-maker in Iran. Tehran did not have to activate its new rule, which stipulates that whenever its arch enemy attacks, Iran will respond forcefully, at the risk of provoking a dangerous escalatory spiral.
Iran is also relishing what it sees as a new show of force.
Hardline President Ibrahim Raisi did not even mention these recent events in his speeches on Friday.
For the Islamic Republic, it is all about what it calls “Operation True Promise” – its unprecedented attack against Israel in the middle of last Sunday night. He praised what he called his country's “steel will.”
Iran has prided itself for years on its “strategic patience,” its policy of playing a long game rather than responding immediately and directly to any provocations.
It is now resorting to “strategic deterrence.” This new principle arose after the April 1 attack on its diplomatic compound in Damascus, which led to the destruction of the consular annex and the killing of seven Revolutionary Guards, including the region's top commander.
Iran's supreme leader has been under increasing pressure to draw a line as Israel intensifies its targets during the last six months of the violent Gaza war.
Israel was no longer just striking Tehran's assets, including weapons caches, buildings, bases and supply routes in battlefields such as Syria and Lebanon, but was also assassinating senior officials.
The decades-old hostility, previously manifested in shadow wars and covert operations, has erupted into open confrontation.
Whatever the details of this latest strike, there is a more fundamental priority for both sides: deterrence – the firmer certainty that strikes on its territory will not happen again. If they do, there will be a cost to pay, and it will be painful.
For now, there is an audible sigh of relief in the region, and in capitals everywhere.
Israel's latest step, under strong urging from its allies to limit its retaliation, should ease this tension for the time being. Everyone wants to stop a catastrophic all-out war. But no one will have any doubt that any calm may not last.
The area is still burning.
The Gaza war continues, causing a huge number of Palestinian casualties.
Under pressure from its most powerful allies, Israel facilitated the delivery of larger amounts of much-needed aid, but the stricken region still teetered on the brink of famine.
The Israeli hostages have not yet returned to their homes, and ceasefire talks have faltered. Israel is still warning of upcoming battles in Hamas's last stronghold in Rafah, which aid officials and world leaders say would amount to another unspeakable humanitarian catastrophe.
Iran's network of proxies across the region, which it calls the “axis of resistance” and which extends from Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon through Iranian-allied militias in Iraq and Syria, to the Houthis in Yemen, remains on high alert, still launching daily attacks.
In the past few weeks, everything and nothing has changed in the region's darkest and most dangerous days.
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