MLB trade grades: Evaluating huge Yankees-Padres Juan Soto deal

Written by Tim Britton, Grant Brisby, and Stephen J. Nesbitt

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Yankees get: Juan Soto, OF, Trent Gresham, OF

Padres Acquire: Michael King, RHP; Drew Thorpe, RHP; Johnny Brito, RHP; Randy Vasquez, RHP; And Kyle Higashioka, C

Tim Britton: Every team will improve if they add Juan Soto. But perhaps no team needed Soto more than the Yankees.

This isn’t just for narrative reasons – although facing your worst season in three decades by adding one of the best hitters in the sport helps in that regard. But in 2023, only two teams have seen worse production from left-handed hitters than the Yankees. It probably follows that only one team has given fewer plate appearances to lefties than New York. What’s bad for any team is especially terrible for a team that plays in a football stadium designed to cater to Southern football players.

The Yankees finished 26th in the majors in OPS from their home stadiums, and that’s despite the presence of Aaron Judge. Remove it from the calculation, and New York’s outfielders are slashing .214/.276/.360 for a .636 OPS. So, yeah, even if it costs you a good pitching prospect and a promising big-league arm, you’re doing what it takes to add Soto’s career .946 OPS to that pile. You can add his other-worldly eye, the intensity that will emerge in the Bronx and the versatility he brings to a lineup that has become a constant over the past several years. It’s Juan Soto.

For San Diego, part of trading for Soto when they did was knowing that if things went south, they could always try to recoup some of the potential cost by moving him before free agency. They got an NLCS appearance out of a trade and some legitimate talent back, but things went south financially. It’s hard to view the Soto trade as a positive.

yankees grade: a
Padres grade: C

Grant Brisby: Juan Soto is on the Hall of Fame track. Check it out, he’s on his way to becoming a member of the Inner Circle Hall of Fame, up there with the greatest of the greats. If you want to undo that, remember that the guy just turned 25. Twenty-five years. There are four players who are 25 or older List of the top 100 MLB prospects.

But this is not just curiosity. If you’re looking at someone hitting free agency at the peak of a very distinguished career, wouldn’t you want 10 months where you’re the only team in baseball that can talk to him about an extension? Not only plant the seeds, but water them and place them under a halogen lamp. People will groan that the Yankees are giving up a lot of talent for a one-year rental, especially when it comes to major league production in 2024, but that’s not the case. It’s an experimental experience. Do you see how welcoming Yankees fans are? Do you see how a short balcony helps you perfectly? Don’t you want to stay here for another 14 years?

My only issue with the Yankees going all-in for Soto is that it forces Aaron Judge into center field, which isn’t ideal for a big guy in his 30s after a toe injury, but that’s Alex Verdugo’s fault, really. Juan Soto on the Yankees. This is something worth celebrating.

Juan Soto is not on the Padres. I understand why, but that doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating. They needed weapons to make up for a lot of the things they lose in free agency, and they needed to take a payroll cut because it turned out they were spenders, and it wasn’t sustainable.

That doesn’t mean it doesn’t suck. They are losing a guy who played 162 games for them last year and had a .410 on-base percentage, a .930 OPS, and a 158 OPS+. They need to replace pitchers, yes, but how do you replace that? They still had a lot of great players, but they were already below the league average in terms of goals scored per game. It would be nearly impossible to make up for losing 162 games of basic Magic.

There is talent coming back, to be clear. Michael King will help immediately. Drew Thorpe looks like he’s moving fast. Randy Vazquez has had a brilliant era in the majors and a dusty FIP, and his dominance has been struggling in the minors, but that should help him at some point in the near future.

There’s a lot of promise the other way, so it’s hard to like him from a Padres standpoint.

yankees: A+
Padres: C+

Stephen J. Nesbitt: The last left-handed (or switch) hitters with a .400 OBP over a full season for the Yankees are Jorge Posada, Jason Giambi, and Bobby Abreu. It’s been 16 years since any of them last did that.

The last Yankees lefties with a 140 OPS+ over a full season are Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, and Mark Teixeira. It’s been a decade since any of them last did that.

Soto has never had a season below a .400 OBP or a 140 OPS+. Not in majors. Not in minors. Maybe not as cute a kid in Santo Domingo either! In today’s game, Soto is in a class of his own as a hitter. In addition to the eye, in addition to communication, in addition to strength. He has a World Series ring, a Home Run Derby trophy, and a batting title, yet he seems most proud when he spits on a ball an inch from the plate. His experience meshes beautifully with Americans’ greatest needs. Soto will spend 2024 spraying baseballs around Yankee Stadium and parking them on the shortstop, joining forces with Judge to form a one-two punch of power and patience.

Grisham doesn’t move the needle offensively, but he does give the Yankees a fourth outfielder who can play center field while they wait for Jason Dominguez to return.

The next question, of course, is whether one season is all they’ll get together. If so, the Yankees better count him out. Their first order of business is to bolster the rest of the roster — starting with a rotation that just lost a significant amount of depth in this trade — and then turn their attention toward whether they can keep Soto in the Bronx long-term.

For the Padres, a comeback is a comeback. That’s fine, if you accept the position that the Padres need to move Soto and his projected $33 million salary sooner rather than later. But she doesn’t throw you. Michael King has looked really good at times, and even better lately, but he’s also 28 years old, two years from free agency, and has yet to carry a full workload in the majors. Thorpe, a 2022 second-round pick, is a promising prospect with significant upside as a starter. He is coming off an outstanding season — a 2.52 ERA between High A and Double A — and was named MLB Pipeline’s Pitching Prospect of the Year. However, the Padres aren’t bringing in any can’t-miss guys here. The only thing for sure here is that the man is going the other way.

Before the trade, the Padres’ projected 2024 rotation featured Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and then a sharp decline. Between King, Thorpe, Brito and Vazquez, they will overhaul the back of their rotation for next season and solidify things for the future. This can work great. But generally speaking, you’re not going to charge a club the size of Soto and look like a winner.

yankees: a
Padres: B-

(Top image: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)