MLB Trends: Cardinals’ snap problem, Dodgers stolen issue, baseball’s least powerful team

It’s now over a month into the 2023 MLB season and we’re settling into the daily grind of the regular baseball season. All the pomp and circumstance of opening day and house openings are over. Now it’s just baseball, day in and day out. Playing every day is the best and the worst thing about this sport. A quick turnaround to forget failure, not enough time to enjoy success.

Anyway, our bi-weekly series analyzing various trends around the league continues on Wednesday with one team’s surprisingly weak defense, one opponent’s problem with preventing stolen bases, and another team’s lack of strength. Two weeks ago, we looked at a catcher who improved his defense, a batter who adjusted his swing, and the dreadful state of Team DH..

Surprisingly weak Cardinal defense

By all accounts, this was a very disappointing start to the season for the Cardinals. They finished last in the NL Central, they dispatched top prospect Jordan Walker less than a month into the season, And they removed award winning free agent Willson Contreras from the rookie job. Not much happened in St. Louis this year.

This also includes their usual super defense. From 2019-22, the Cardinal led all teams with 228 passes defended (the Astros at 219 were the only other team over 180) and ranked third with a defensive efficiency of 0.722, which is a fancy way of saying St. Louis turned in a 72.2. % of balls in play in outs. Elite defense has been a constant for the Cardinals, seemingly forever.

This was not the case this season. Entering play on Tuesday, the Cardinals are 18th in saves minus -2 saved and 29th (!) in defensive efficiency. 657. With the exception of Contreras behind the plate, this is the same defensive group as last season, and the catcher doesn’t contribute much to defensive efficiency. Because he doesn’t use many batted balls.

“It’s a different guy every night, and it was such unfortunate timing that, when these non-theatrical things happened,” Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol told L.L.C St. Louis Post-Dispatch Last monthafter a sloppy sequence against the Giants in which Lars Nutbarr dropped a ball to center field and scored the runner on a wild pitch.

MLB implemented new rules to limit defensive turnovers this season, and that certainly could be contributing to the Cardinals’ defensive woes. Last season, St. Louis allowed a . 284 batting average on balls in play with turnover, essentially matching the . 283 league average. Without the switch, he jumped to 0.28 BABIP, which was still a mark below the .303 league average.

The thing is, the Cardinals didn’t convert much. They turned in 27.9% of plate appearances last season, which ranked 21st in baseball and was comfortably south of the league average of 33.3%. This is not to say that St. Louis has not improved its position. It just means they didn’t use those extreme turnovers (three players on the right side, etc.) as often as most teams.

It should be noted that defensive damage this year has been inflicted on all types of batted balls. It’s not just ground balls causing trouble for the Cardinals this year, fly balls, or line drives. They convert all types of batted balls into fewer balls. Here are BABIP’s numbers:

Several defensive metrics indicated that last year the Cardinals weren’t a particularly wide range group, but they excelled at completing plays. They convert the balls they get into ends, and you can make up for the lack of range with turnovers. Now shifts are limited and compensation for range isn’t exactly easy. That could hurt the Cardinals on the field this season.

It probably doesn’t help that Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are in their 30s and at an age when you’d expect their defensive skills to wane, or that the Cardinals can’t seem to settle into regular alignments out of the field. There is no single thing that causes a team to slip up on the field. There are likely several things, and whatever they are, it’s just another thing going wrong with the 2023 Cardinals.

“The timing of what we’re doing now isn’t great,” Marmol said St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “There’s no way out of it but to get up tomorrow, play another game, hope you get through it, get up the next morning and keep going until you get out of this little predicament. Too bad nothing clicks the way it’s supposed to.”

Dodgers struggle to prevent stolen bases

Last month, the Dodgers did something they had never done before in franchise history, and it wasn’t good. From April 25–28, they allowed at least three stolen bases in four straight games after not doing so in more than three straight games previously. In those four games—which Los Angeles still managed to split 2-2—the opponents went 15-for-16 stealing bases. Yikes.

“Now, I don’t know the answer,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts recently told MLB.com about preventing steals better. “The best answer is to try and get them off first base, but once they get there, they take advantage of us. So I think it’s a combination of pitchers sometimes, and I also think fasters can be offenders sometimes as well. Well, I wish that was a workaround.” fast. ”

Entering play on Tuesday, the Dodgers have allowed an MLB-high 45 steals (the White Sox with 41 are the only other team to allow more than 35 steals) and an MLB-high 11 steals from third base. The Primary Bandits had an 87% success rate against Los Angeles, well above the league average of 79% even at that rate. The era of the increasing stolen bases.

Perhaps the most amazing number is the number of times teams compete against the Dodgers. This is the top (or bottom, I suppose) of the stolen try rate leaderboard:

1. Dodgers: 10.4%
2. white socks: 8.9%
3. Guardians: 8.9%
4. Athletics: 7.7%
5. Blue Jays: 7.7%
   (MLB average: 6.5%)

A stolen base chance is defined as a runner on first or second base with the next base open, so runners attempted to steal 10.4% of their stolen base chances against Los Angeles. The gap between numbers 1 and 2 on that list is the same as the gap between numbers 2 and 7. And the Dodgers are excellent at many things. Theft prevention is not among them.

Obviously, the catcher is a factor. Runners went 28-for-31 (90%) against Austin Barnes, who caught more than expected because Will Smith took time on the concussion list. According to Statcast, Barnes has the lowest average throwing speed among qualified catchers and a below-average pop time, so he’s an easy target. Smith rates above average in speed and pop time, but runners are still 10-for-12 (83%) against him.

Jugs are not blameless. The Dodgers have many pitchers who are slow to play or don’t do a particularly good job of catching runners, and it’s of course much stricter now with the pitch clock and disengagement limit. Noah Syndergaard has always been very steal-prone and runners are 9-for-9 against him this year. Runners are 17-for-18 (94%) against relievers Yancy Almonte, Phil Pickford, Caleb Ferguson, Shelby Miller and Alex Vecia.

Los Angeles is on track to allow 203 stolen bases this season. Only one team this century has allowed 200 steals (2001 Red Sox with 223) and no team has allowed even 170 steals since the 2007 Padres (189). The Dodgers are the most steal-prone team we’ve seen in a while, and it’s not all about the catch or the new rules. Many of their pitchers simply don’t do a good job of catching runners. Allowing too many steals won’t ruin a team’s season, but it’s something the Dodgers can improve on.

“If you don’t have the ability to run a running game, you’re not a viable option for going into a run with runners on base,” he said. Roberts told MLB.com. “And I think everyone has to take it upon themselves to get better. There’s a couple of guys who are doing a good job. But we’ve obviously given up more bases than anyone else in baseball. The arm talent is still there. The track record is still there.” But we have to be better.”

The guards’ lack of power

One year ago, the Guardians, while the youngest sports team in baseball, won 92 games and the AL Central thanks to a relentless lineup that rarely sparkled and constantly put pressure on defenses. Cleveland players hit in just 18.2% of their appearances at the plate last season. The Astros have the second-lowest strikeout rate at 19.5%, and the league average is 22.4%.

The Guardians have struck out a bit more this season, though their strikeout rate of 20.2% is still fourth lowest in baseball and comfortable south of the league average of 22.7%. With the exception of Mike Zunino, Cleveland’s offense is built around guys putting the ball into play and forcing the opposing team to play.

This is all well and good, but a low strike rate does not automatically equal a good offense. The guard averages just 3.50 points per game, second lowest in baseball after the Marlins (3.28 points per game), and they rank last or near the league in most major offensive categories:

Despite the lack of hitting, the Rangers hit a low batting average, largely because they didn’t hit the ball that hard. A barrel is basically the best possible combination of exit speed and launch angle, the two balls that deal the most damage, and only a few barrels attack like Guardians. It’s an exaggeration to say they’re a team of slapping hitters, but kind of?

“We never talk about it. Ever. I think that’s the worst thing we can do,” he said. Guardians manager Terry Francona told MLB.com when asked if his team needs to try to hit more home runs.. “We just want them to be good hitters. If they’re good hitters, there’s going to be some balls that will come out of the field. But if you start trying to hit home runs before you’re a good hitter, you’re not going to get anything done.”

Jose Ramirez leads the Guardians with four home runs, Josh Bell and Josh Naylor have three from the same family, and no one else on the list has more than two. For comparison, the Rays have nine players with at least five home runs. Cleveland recently went five straight games without a homer and the Guard has only hit two home runs in its last nine games. It’s one thing not to rely too much on Homers. It’s another thing to be completely devoid of power.

With the exception of Ramirez, Cowan and possibly Zunino, everyone else has been underperforming in offense. Bell, Naylor, Andres Jimenez, Amed Rosario, turnstile in right field. everyone. Cleveland’s offense excelled somewhat last season, based on the quality of its calling and the results it achieved. This year things went the other way. They are not actually this Bad, but the margin for offensive error is slim, and that’s what it’s like when things don’t quite go right.

“I think with hitters, you always hope that one swing will get somebody really hot,” he says. Francona told MLB.com. “Sometimes you see it, sometimes you don’t. Some guys work it out.”