EBRD predicts Russian economy to grow 1.5% in 2023 despite sanctions
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) estimates that the Russian economy will grow by 1.5% this year, whereas it previously expected an equivalent amount of contraction.
Moscow’s revenue was supported “By Russia’s ability to offset oil price hikes and the ceiling impact [du prix du baril imposé par les Occidentaux] By exporting [du pétrole] Towards New Markets »Mainly in China and India, according to the EBRD.
“In our last forecast, we expected economic sanctions – particularly oil price caps – to be more effective in curbing Russian activity”The company continued in a statement sent to Agence France-Presse.
Further, “Activity remained strong – particularly household consumption and public spending related to the ongoing conflict – and second quarter GDP figures were surprisingly strong”Adds the EBRD, though it expects a slowdown thereafter.
On the other hand, for Ukraine, the company expects growth of 1% this year and 3% next year. “This reflects a very negative year-on-year growth compared to January and February last year.”Before the Russian invasion, the EBRD notes, however, that it expects a rebound with improved energy supplies.
Overall, the economies of countries with EBRD are expected to experience a Growth 2.4%Although it forecast 2.2% in May, thanks to the economies of Central Asian countries in particular, which are benefiting from sanctions on Russia.
These countries should see a 5.7% increase in their GDP this year, driven mainly by the relocation of Russian companies to their regions or increased imports from the EU, part of which is re-exported to Russia. According to the EBRD.
The migration of workers from Central Asia to Russia, especially to compensate for the exodus of part of the working-age population, stimulates the development of these regions, as they send money back to their home countries.
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