May 27, 2024

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Why the ‘border incident’ could trigger a war with Russia

Expansion of Tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine Did it reach its final stage before falling into armed conflict? However, this is exactly what the US government fears after Belarus announced the arrival of Russian troops on its border on Tuesday.
For “war readiness” exercises. “It simply came to our notice then
Attack at any time in Ukraine White House spokeswoman Jen Zaki promised. In this context, Foreign Secretary Anthony Blinken held an emergency meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zhelensky on Wednesday.

Needless to say, this was not Moscow’s first military maneuver. “In early December, Russia organized in its territory near the Ukrainian border A large military exercise that mobilized 100,000 people “Cyril Brett, a researcher at the Jack Tallors Institute and a professor of science at Paris, recalled that the Russian government did not inform its Western partners in an unusual way. Finally, in early January, a.
Russian military intervention in Kazakhstan Via a small NATO Joint Defense Agreement (CSTO), a type that includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Russia.

Russia is advancing

Nonetheless, no one seems to be interested in a conflict erupting. “Americans are already busy confronting Chinese influence and do not want a secondary conflict in Europe,” explains Jean de Cliniasti, director of research at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (Iris). “On the Russian side, general opinion does not want war,” continues the former ambassador to Moscow ten years ago. If the Russian government wants to resolve this issue by force, it knows it will not be easy. “The sense of nationalism in Ukraine today is very strong and the weapons are much better than ever Battle of Donbass Six years ago. If Russia attacks, the military knows it will not happen in the park, “said the expert.

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Westerners, like the Russians, are in balance of power. The Russian government submitted a draft defense agreement on Europe in mid-December “Take or Leave”. The latter was first discussed in Geneva last week and the next meeting is scheduled for next week. “Before the negotiation process, we know that bidding goes both ways and puts pressure on the adversary. This is always the case,” said Jean de Cliniasti, editor. A Brief History of Franco-Russian Relations.

According to Cyril Brett, the Russians are “testing the determination of Americans and Europeans to support Ukraine.” If Anthony Blingen’s visit to Ukraine is intended to reassure the country, studies suggest that “the United States will not give up Ukraine and show Russia that Vladimir Putin should not go further in the rankings of military operations.” During this trip, he was the head of US diplomacy He also asked Vladimir Putin to choose the “quiet way.” Get rid of the Ukrainian crisis.

Overflowing the border will change everything

What is worrying is that there has already been continuous military action on one side for two months Russians And their allies near the Ukrainian border. While no government wants an armed conflict, this situation could be triggered by poor control of troops on the ground. “When we mobilize troops, we have military training for so long, because it increases the risk of incidents. Soldiers get tired and make mistakes,” explains Cyril Brett. The unplanned or autonomous firing of a unit commander will force the opposition to retaliate. It will disintegrate quickly and we do not know where it stands, “said Jack-Delor, a researcher at the Institute.

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This “border incident” is far from being dismissed by experts. First, negotiations on the glorious agreement establishing a new security status in Europe will be time consuming and difficult. In fact, Russia and the West are still blocking the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO: NATO views its open door policy as a matter of policy, while Russia categorically denies the situation.

Because then Ukraine In Donbass, Jean de Cliniasti explains that “there are far-right nationalist forces, and some military units may provoke temporary action that will degenerate.” On the Russian side, the expert says, “a small section of the nationalist right thinks that Russia’s security can only be obtained at the expense of the occupation of Ukraine.” The armed actions of minorities can lead to chain reaction.