Xi and Putin speak via video as the Ukraine war tests the partnership of China and Russia

Hong Kong
CNN
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A meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin via video conference is taking place, with analysts watching for any sign of the Chinese leader’s support for his Russian counterpart waning as the war drags on in Ukraine and as China grapples with an unprecedented Covid outbreak.

In opening remarks broadcast on Russian television, Putin invited Xi to visit Moscow next spring. He added that the two countries would enhance cooperation between their armed forces, and noted the growth of trade despite “unfavorable market conditions”.

He said that the bilateral relations are “the best in history, and withstand all tests.” “We share the same views on the causes, trajectory and logic of the ongoing transformation of the global geopolitical landscape.”

Xi also delivered opening remarks, saying “against the backdrop of the difficult international situation, China is willing to increase political cooperation with Russia” and be “global partners,” according to Russian state media’s translation of the broadcast.

Moscow and Beijing have grown closer in recent years, with Xi and Putin announcing the two countries had a “borderless” partnership weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

Since then, China has refused to condemn the aggression, instead repeatedly blaming the conflict on NATO and the United States—and has remained one of Russia’s main remaining supporters as Russia becomes increasingly isolated on the world stage.

But more than 10 months into the grinding war, the world looks very different — and the dynamic between the two partners has shifted accordingly, experts say.

Instead of an expected quick victory, Putin’s invasion fell apart with many setbacks on the battlefield, Including Lack of basic equipment. Morale is low in parts of Russia, where many civilians are facing Economic hardship during the harsh winter.

On Thursday, Russia launched what Ukrainian officials described as one The largest rocket launcher Since the war began in February, explosions have rocked villages and cities across Ukraine, damaging civilian infrastructure and killing at least three people.

Ukrainian officials have warned for days that Russia is preparing an all-out attack on the power grid to shut down 2022, plunging the country into darkness as Ukrainians try to protest in the New Year and celebrate Christmas, for which the country’s Orthodox Christians fall on January 7.

“China is eager to end (the war),” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank.

“Xi will try to stress the importance of peace for Putin,” she added. “With Russia growing impatient over the lack of progress on the battlefield, the timing is ripening for peace talks in the eyes of China.”

China, too, is becoming increasingly isolated in its stance toward Russia, said Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

Wu pointed to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as an example of the hardening of attitudes towards the Russian war.

Although India did not immediately condemn Moscow’s invasion, Modi told Putin in September that now is not the time for war and urged him to move towards peace.

Wu said the shift means China now stands on its own in its relationship with Russia, which is another reason Xi is eager to see a quick resolution.

Xi was already showing signs of impatience when he last met Putin in September at a regional summit in Uzbekistan. At the time, Putin acknowledged that Beijing had “questions and concerns” about the invasion, in what appeared to be a thinly veiled acknowledgment of their divergent views.

But experts say China’s domestic situation has also changed dramatically in the months since, which may require a different approach for Putin this time around.

The country is currently battling the worst ever outbreak of Covid yet Abandoning its strict no-covid policy, with the easing of restrictions and the partial reopening of borders. The shift came after an unprecedented wave of protests across the country against Zero Covid – expanded in some cases to include broader grievances against Xi and the ruling Communist Party.

In the center of this crisis Ho Shi – who entered A third period in violation of the standards In October, with a tight grip on power and a close circle of loyalists.

“Now that domestic issues are out of the way, Xi is in a better position to operate in Russia,” said Sun of the Stimson Center, referring to his October consolidation of power.

She added that despite the war’s unpopularity, China and Russia are “allied because of geopolitics”. Both countries have tensions with the West, and the two leaders have often promoted a shared vision of a new world order.

The two leaders will emphasize their partnership, cooperation and strong ties. They will want to send the message that all of these are beyond the war in Ukraine. It (the war) was an irritant to China last year and affected China’s interest in Europe. But the damage is not great enough that China will abandon Russia.

Wu also acknowledged that the relationship was “fundamental for both countries,” noting China’s ability to benefit from the Ukraine war given its access to Russian oil.

However, he added, China’s protests and the COVID-19 outbreak and consequent economic losses have put Xi in a more vulnerable position that could mean less material and overt support for Russia.

“The policy tools that Xi Jinping can use to support Russia are very limited now, they are very restricted,” Wu said. Politically, domestic support for Xi declined dramatically. And his third term doesn’t really start off with a rosy picture.”