ORCHARD PARK — The Buffalo Bills sure had a very happy Christmas considering how Week 16 was in the NFL.
Things don't always go the Bills' way — we all know the history — but last weekend was one of those rare occasions when almost everything lined up for Buffalo regarding the AFC playoff race.
After the Bills held on 24-22 against the Chargers, in quick-fire order, the Bengals, Colts, Texans and Broncos all lost, and each of those results was beneficial to Buffalo in terms of the wild card picture in the AFC. At 9-6, the Bills are now sole owners of the sixth seed, one game behind the Colts, Texans, Bengals and Steelers, and two behind the Broncos.
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Thanks to all that, Sean McDermott's team — which was considered mostly dead less than a month ago when it was 6-6 after an overtime loss to the Eagles — has a 92% chance of reaching the postseason according to a New York Times playoff simulation.
Scenarios for deciding the Buffalo Bills match
That could become 100% next weekend if the Bills defeat the Patriots at Highmark Stadium, and then one of two scenarios goes their way.
The first requires the Chiefs to beat the visiting Bengals (very possible), the Seahawks to beat the visiting Steelers (also very possible), and the visiting Panthers to beat the reeling Jaguars (possible given Jacksonville's current four-game losing streak, but perhaps unlikely). If two of those teams — Bengals, Steelers, Jaguars — lose, the Bills at least clinch a wild-card berth.
The second is more risky because it would require the Colts to lose at home to the Raiders, and the Texans to lose at home to the Giants, plus either the Steelers or Bengals to lose, so three games would have to go Buffalo's way.
In Week 17, if the Bills win and the improbable event that absolutely nothing else goes their way, they still have an 82% chance of becoming a Wild Card team.
Can the Bills win the AFC East?
As for the AFC East race, the only game that got Buffalo to victory last weekend was Dallas failing to maintain a one-point lead in the final five minutes and losing on a field goal to the division-leading Dolphins. Thus, Miami remains two games ahead of the Bills with two games to play.
However, the Bills' chances of winning the AFC East have not diminished. In Week 17, the Dolphins face another big test as they travel to Baltimore. If Miami wins, it will clinch the division and be in the driver's seat for the top seed in the AFC bracket, which means a bye week and automatic advancement to the divisional round.
But if the Dolphins lose, and assuming the Bills beat the Patriots, Buffalo will head to Miami for the season finale, and a win at Hard Rock Stadium would make them AFC East champions for the fourth straight year. That's because while both teams' records would be 11-6, the Bills would own the head-to-head tiebreaker by sweeping the season series.
Sal Maiorana can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's Bills Blast newsletter, which is published twice a week during the season, please follow this link:https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
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