Mark Hughes: What keeps the Formula 1 pecking order skewed in China

Behind the front row of Red Bull (and Team 100^y Pole in Formula 1), the Chinese Grand Prix grid arrangement is a bit unusual.

The Aston Martin driven by Fernando Alonso came in third place, much further than expected. Ferrari – Red Bull's closest rival this year – is back in sixth and seventh, separated by two McLarens from Alonso. Mercedes suffered a particularly disastrous day with George Russell starting eighth and Lewis Hamilton 18th^y.

It all seems a bit random. But it is not. A very special performance engine has been on display during the first two days of returning to the Shanghai circuit after five years – and the skewed grid arrangement appears to be a result of that process. The underlying performance underneath is exactly as it usually is and the expectation is that tomorrow's race will confirm just that.

The way on-track grip did not develop as on a typical Grand Prix weekend has radically changed the dispersion arrangements between the teams. Normally, as the rubber level decreases and track grip gradually increases over the weekend, the cars' steering ability will decrease further. The grip of all four tires increases, of course, but the more powerful rear tires get a greater increase in grip than the front tires.

This is just part of the normal race weekend routine and teams incorporate it into their setups. On tracks where rear thermal degradation is expected to be the limiting factor, this tendency towards understeer while increasing grip is actually very beneficial, as it protects the weak rear tyres.

In the past, Shanghai was not a limited back track. The grain of the front tires has always been the limiting factor, so the rear tires are not put on undue stress. But this year is definitely proving to be a limited track from behind.

Grip wasn't really enhanced, perhaps due to the surface protective coating that was applied and partly thanks to Friday's rain. So the balance of the cars wasn't turning over the weekend in the way it normally would. As a result, the buttocks are under more pressure.

This process was only gradually revealed as each session took place, but was emphatically confirmed in the morning sprint where the Red Bull had a bigger advantage than usual, the Ferraris perhaps being second quickest as usual but being thwarted by being stuck behind the Aston. Alonso and her ass are very bad in the first half of the race. This kept Sergio Perez's Ferrari and Red Bull away from Hamilton who was able to take a well judged second place but away from Max Verstappen.

It is perhaps no coincidence that the two cars that actually suffered from low tire temperatures in qualifying for Friday's sprint race – the Red Bulls and Ferraris – were the two fastest cars in the dry race, as they had the best tire score. Those who generated a good temperature in qualifying – McLaren and Aston – were not so fast in the sprint race. The Mercedes probably fell somewhere between those two traits.

Since the new Sprint Parc Ferme regulations – used for the first time this weekend – allow setup changes between the sprint races and qualifying Grand Prix, the sprint races have reported setup changes made during qualifying. Everyone was looking to protect the rear to a greater or lesser extent by introducing some steering into their cars. But how much?

This choice was further complicated by the effect of strong winds. The track surface was relatively constant but the wind was highly variable in strength and direction. Which has a greater impact on the car's balance on a low-grip surface.

“It was confusing,” said Polseter Verstappen at the Grand Prix. “My first run in Q3 was slower than it was in Q2. Maybe it was the wind. Here the balance of the car is very sensitive to the direction of the wind. So for the last run, I didn't really know what to expect but everything came together and the grip seemed to become natural.” little bit.

To put that in context, even his first run in Q3 (0.2 seconds slower than in Q2) would still have been good enough for first place…

The Red Bull, as a car generally thought to generate more overall downforce from the lower body than others, is perhaps less affected by wind. Perez recovered from a chaotic session to finish second, having been on the verge of crashing out of the first section of the race, and canceled a fresh tire session after a regional misunderstanding with Alex Albon.

By the time he tried out more of the front wing on his first Q3 run, and then took it out again, he only started to put it together at the end. Had Alonso not suffered a minor bump at Turns 1-2 that lost him a few tenths of a second, Perez might not have made it to the front row.

Not that Alonso thinks it will make much difference. “It doesn't change much for tomorrow to be P2 or P3 today. 7th/8th/9th is our natural system [at the] Checkered flag.

“We are slower than Ferrari, slower than McLaren, maybe Mercedes but we often overtake them, and then in the race we need to wait and see when they come, how fast they are and how many laps we can defend.” Those situations. This has happened so far in the first four races, so I don't see how it will be different in race five. “It will be a tough race for us, but we can't regret being so fast in qualifying.”

Looking at the in-car footage comparison between Alonso and Russell's Mercedes, it's clear that Aston was changing direction better. Did Alonso and Aston deliberately under-engineer a lot of understeer in an attempt to artificially boost their grid position and accept the price of a very defensive race but from a better starting position? maybe. Most likely, this is where the car's natural balance ranges and how its tires are used.

Lando Norris, less than a few hundredths behind Alonso in fourth, was similarly pessimistic about how McLaren would look after its rear tires despite changes made to his settings after the race. “No. We've been out of the car a lot but we're taking care of the tires thermally, and I don't think we're where we need to be. There's not much we can do.”

Mercedes clearly could have done better, losing out clearly thanks to Hamilton underestimating the strength of the tailwind at Turn 14 in Q1 and running disastrously wide, losing 0.4 seconds and failing to clear the Q1 barrier. Russell, having used a set of soft tires in the sprint, was forced to use another extra set in Q2 as he was unable to complete his first lap thanks to a red flag caused by Sainz.

Having only played one round in Division Three in windy conditions, he was therefore not at his highest level of confidence. But the Merc has a good tire rating, almost certainly better than the McLarens of Oscar Piastri, Norris and Aston Alonso.

Meanwhile, Ferrari is confident that it is moving forward. “We expected more [from qualifying]”, admitted Charles Leclerc. “I know that the lineup I chose was not ideal for today. But I didn't expect to be behind Astons and McLarens. But I think it's good for tomorrow. I think we have the car to perform well tomorrow.

“It will all be about how fast we can pass others. The main question mark is how long we will be stuck on a DRS train before the guy at the front of the train loses his DRS. There will be laps when there are no laps and DRS will have to take those opportunities to pass people.” “.